Gold tests a major support zone as Warsh returns to the stage. Will it hold?

Gold has slipped to its lowest level in almost eight months as a firmer dollar and rising Treasury yields continue to erode the metal’s appeal. The move caps a difficult stretch: bullion is heading for its steepest quarterly fall in over a decade, its first quarterly loss since 2024, and a fourth consecutive monthly decline.

The driver is the same one that has weighed on gold since Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish first meeting in June. The Fed held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% but dropped its easing bias and took a 2026 cut off the table, and a run of firm US data has since hardened that stance. Job openings have climbed to a two-year high, core inflation remains well above the 2% target, and the dollar index has pushed above 101 for the first time since May 2025. With real yields elevated, a non-yielding asset like gold has borne the brunt.

Two events could set the tone from here:

• Warsh returns to the stage today. He joins Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey and Tiff Macklem on the Sintra policy panel at 13:00 GMT, his first public appearance outside the US since taking office. Markets are unlikely to get an explicit policy signal, but with forward guidance scrapped, traders could parse his tone closely. A firm line on inflation could support the dollar and yields further, while a more balanced take on growth could offer gold some relief.
• US jobs data lands Thursday. June non-farm payrolls have been brought forward to 2 July ahead of the Independence Day holiday, with consensus around 100,000, a cooling from May’s 172,000, and unemployment seen at 4.3%. A strong print could reinforce the higher-for-longer narrative, while a soft one could ease pressure on the metal.

Markets now price at least one Fed hike this year, potentially as soon as September. That backdrop leaves gold on the defensive as it tests a level that matters.

The daily chart: major support in focus

On the daily, gold is holding the $3,900 to $4,000 major support area, a level it has so far defended despite the broader downtrend.

• A potential bullish divergence is forming, with momentum putting in higher lows against price. It is not the most convincing signal yet, but it is worth watching at this level.
• A recent local high sits overhead as a possible validation target if buyers can build on a bounce.
• The daily trend still leans bearish, and the next major hurdle above is the $4,300 to $4,400 zone, a clear band of resistance if price can recover.

For now, the picture is a market pressing on important support with a tentative momentum signal underneath it, rather than a confirmed turn.

The 4-hour chart: a range to trade around

Zooming in, a clearer range has formed:

• Range lows sit around $3,950.
• Range highs sit around $4,090.

A reclaim of the range could open a move back towards the $4,090 range high. A break above that high could be the more constructive signal, potentially opening the path towards the $4,300 resistance zone flagged on the daily.

A failure to hold here could be the more concerning outcome. If this higher-timeframe support gives way, it could open a larger move to the downside, with the market losing an area that has repeatedly acted as a floor.

Key levels to watch

• $3,950: 4-hour range low
• $3,900 to $4,000: major higher-timeframe support
• $4,090: 4-hour range high and first upside validation
• $4,300 to $4,400: major resistance zone above

The setup is finely balanced. Gold is defending a level that has held before, with a tentative momentum divergence hinting at a possible bounce, but a bearish daily trend and a heavy macro calendar mean the risk of a break lower is very much live. Warsh’s tone this afternoon and Thursday’s jobs data could decide which way it resolves.

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