5 min readBitcoin has recovered from yesterday’s 65k low to 67k; however, the recovery has stalled around this level. The broader cryptocurrency market capitalisation has also risen by more than 1% over the past 24 hours to $ 2.3 trillion, but is down by over $1 trillion in just one month.
The steep sell-off comes amid multiple headwinds facing Bitcoin.
Software & Macro risks
AI disruption fears hit software stocks that have traded in tandem with Bitcoin over the past 18 months. While Bitcoin has long been viewed as a high-beta proxy for tech, recent data suggest the relationship is more concentrated. Over the past 18 months, BTC and the iShares Expanded Tech Software Sector ETF (IGV) have moved in near lockstep, with a 30-day rolling correlation of 0.73, indicating a strong correlation.
Macro risks are also mounting after the stronger-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls report pointed to a resilient start to the labour market in 2026. As a result, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have been pushed out to July from June.
Attention is now turning to CPI data due tomorrow for further clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Looser monetary policy increases liquidity, which is often beneficial for risk assets such as Bitcoin and tech stocks.
Crypto Fear and Greed hits a record low.
As headwinds intensify, the crypto Fear and Greed index fell to a record low on Thursday, dropping to 5 “Extreme Fear” on the alternative.me gauge. While the cryptocurrency Fear and Greed index has been drifting in extreme fear throughout February, below the 20 mark on Thursday, it fell by 50% to 5, down from 11. This was last observed during the COVID-19 crypto crash known as “Black Thursday”.
As such, questions over how low crypto can fall persist. Standard Chartered on Thursday forecast that Bitcoin would reach 50k and that Ethereum could drop to 1400 in the next few months, before the crypto market slump bottoms and the rebound begins. The bank also slashed its Bitcoin year and forecast 100K from 150K and Ethereum to 4000 from 7500.
Ethereum struggles to gain traction amid ETF outflows
On a similar note to Bitcoin, Ethereum is rising slightly today, but the move higher is far from convincing. The prospect of higher rates for longer keeps sentiment subdued. Meanwhile, flows into digital assets underline the cautious tone.
ETH outflows reached $129.2 million on Wednesday, which puts ETH ETFs on track for a fourth straight week of net outflows, and February is shaping up to be the fourth consecutive month of outflows. ETH could struggle to gain traction until institutional demand returns.
After encountering resistance at the falling trendline, ETH/USDT rebounded, dropping to 1740 on February 6. The price recovered from the low but failed to retake the 2200 level and dropped below 2000. The main trend remains bearish; as such, near-term price rises should be treated with caution until clear reversal signals appear. However, it’s worth noting that the MACD points to a receding bearish bias, and the RSI is overbought.
Sellers will look to extend losses toward 1740, breaking down to fresh 2026-year lows toward 1400, the 2025 low.
Any recovery would need to rise above 2200 to pave the way towards 2700. A rise above here negates the downtrend and opens the door to the 3000-3080 resistance zone, the round number, the falling trendline and the late January high
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