5 min readBitcoin is edging lower on Friday but has held onto most of its gains from a sharp mid-week jump, as traders remain focused on Fed rate cut expectations amid key inflation data later today.
Bitcoin has seen a volatile week, falling to a low of 83.5k before recovering to 93k and easing back to 91.5k at the time of writing, which is approximately where BTC started the week.
The recovery from this week’s lows was fueled in part by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week. ADP payrolls this week showed a sharp decline. The challenges also showed 71,000 layoffs, bringing total layoffs this year to 1.1 million, reinforcing the view that labour market conditions are cooling.
Attention will now turn to US core PCE data today, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Cooler inflation could strengthen the case for a rate cut. Bitcoin often performs better in low-interest-rate environments.
Meanwhile, institutional inflows have slowed again, with spot BTC ETFs recording net outflows this week of $142.4 million.
XRP Pulls Back, but ETFs and Whale Accumulation Point to Strength
XRP is down 4% over the past 24 hours at 2.06, despite the broader Ripple ecosystem seeing some of its strongest institutional numbers in years.
One of the main reasons for the price decline was the expiry of $5.94 million in XRP options contracts today; the contracts were priced around $2.15 above XRP’s close of $2.08. Many traders in this scenario sell to cut losses, adding downward pressure.
XRP is also being dragged lower by a fall in the total crypto market cap, which is down 1.17% over the past 24 hours, whilst Bitcoin dominance rose 58.68% suggesting that money is moving away from altcoins such as XRP.
However, it’s not all bad news. XRP’s fundamentals remain strong. US spot ETFs have recorded 14 consecutive days of net inflows since launching mid—November. The total weekly inflows are $220.5 million this week, following net inflows of $243.95 million last week. Since the launch, net inflows have reached $881.25 million.
On-chain data shows that after nearly a month of heavy outflows, XRP holders have flipped positive. Recent data shows the strongest net position increase since early October, which could signal a price reversal.
Furthermore, XRP whale activity is showing an interesting trend. The number of mega whales has fallen by 20% over the past two months, while the remaining whales hold more XRP than in the past seven years, totaling around 48 billion XRP. This points to fewer wallets but with larger holdings, indicating major investors are quietly accumulating amid confidence.
XRP technical analysis
XRP trades in a descending channel. The price recovered from the 1.81 November low, but the recovery faltered at 1.27, and XRP continues to ease lower. The RSI is below 50, keeping sellers hopeful of further downside.
Sellers will look to take out support at 2.04, opening the door to 1.89, the mid-point of the falling channel, and the horizontal support. A break below here could spur a deeper selloff to 1.60, the lower band of the falling channel.
Should 2.04 support hold, buyers need to rise above 2.21, the upper band of the falling channel, and 2.30, the 50 SMA, and horizontal resistance to expose the 200 SMA at 2.60.
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