5 min readBitcoin continues to consolidate around 107 K, trading broadly unchanged for a second straight day. The largest cryptocurrency is on track to rise 5% across the week; however, the price is still trading in a familiar range within which it has traded through most of June, between the 103 and 108K.
US futures hit a record high
The Israeli-run ceasefire continues to hold up, and hopes of a more dovish Federal Reserve have helped US stock futures reach fresh all-time highs, which could help boost BTC to another record high.
The S&P 500 futures reached a record high on Thursday, hitting 6145, whilst the tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 futures peaked at 22,530 at the same time, suggesting that risk appetite has rebounded. Sustained equity momentum, combined with strong institutional inflows, means conditions could be ripe to help propel BTC past its recent resistance.
Core PCE inflation in focus
Attention today will be on US core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge for inflation, which is expected to remain at 0.1% MoM in May, the same pace as in April and 2.6% year on year, a touch higher than the 2.5% seen in April. Attention will also be on the personal spending component, which is expected to slow to 0.1% from 0.2%
While Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has warned that he expects inflation to rise due to Trump’s trade tariffs, he also said that if it doesn’t, the Fed could continue to cut rates. There is also a growing chorus of Fed officials who have said they could consider an earlier rate cut should the data support it. Cooler-than-forecast inflation data could raise expectations for a Fed rate cut, lifting BTC. Bitcoin tends to perform well in a lower interest rate environment due to higher liquidity.
XRP falls as US judge denies SEC joint request
On Thursday, a U.S. district judge delivered a crucial ruling in the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) vs. Ripple case, denying a joint request for an indicative ruling to reduce a $125 million civil penalty to $50 million and reverse the ban on XRP sales to institutional investors.
Ripple has until August to decide whether to proceed with its cross-appeal. If Ripple presses ahead with the appeal, the SEC could press ahead with its appeal against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling. If this appeal is successful, XRP would come under the SEC’s remit, and in a worst-case scenario, US exchanges may delist XRP, which could then force the SEC to deny the XRP ETF application.
According to the polymarket, the odds of an XRP ETF approval this year has fallen to 78% down from a high of 98.2% prior to the ruling.
Where next for XRP?
The XRP/USD outlook shows signs of weakening. The price is breaking below the triangle pattern that it traded with. The 50 SMA crossed below the 200 SMA in a death cross bearish signal, and the RSI is below 50, favoring the downside.
Sellers would need to break below 2.00 to create a lower low and spark a deeper selloff.
Should buyers breaks above the 200 SMA and falling trendline at 2.35, this could spur a rally towards 2.65, the May high
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