Bitcoin: Trading Below Key Resistance as EMA Cross Adds Confluence

Welcome back, everyone, to another technical update on Bitcoin.

Starting with the daily chart, we can see that price is still trading right below the $95,500 resistance level.
For additional context, we’ve added the 20 EMA (purple) and the 50 EMA (blue) to the chart.

It’s worth noting that last week, the 20 EMA crossed above the 50 EMA, a technical development that often suggests bullish momentum building.

However, if we see a rejection at current levels and a move lower, it will be important to monitor how price interacts with these EMAs:

• If the 20 EMA or50 EMA align with the first initial support at $91,600, or
• The untested breakout level at around $88,900, that would add strong technical confluence to those areas as support zones

In short, the moving averages could play a key role in either catching a pullback or confirming deeper weakness if those levels break.

Let’s now dive into the lower timeframes to see if we can update the patterns we discussed in yesterday’s analysis and identify any new structures developing.

4H Chart – Resistance Holds, Broadening Pattern at Risk of Invalidation

Zooming into the 4-hour timeframe, we can see the trendlines that we’ve been using to track the broadening wedge (megaphone) pattern from yesterday’s market update.

However, it’s important to note that the minor resistance zone around $95,500 is now acting as clear resistance.
Unless we get a clean breakout above $95,500, it becomes increasingly likely that the broadening pattern will be invalidated, and that price is instead forming a range-bound structure.

In that case:

• The range highs would be defined by the $95,500 region
• And price action would likely continue oscillating between range highs and lower supports until a new breakout or breakdown occurs.

Interestingly, if bulls manage to break above $95,500, we could see:

• A breakout toward the $98,300 level,
• Which would not only be a key high timeframe resistance zone, but also align with the upper boundary of the previous broadening wedge structure, adding technical confluence to that potential move.

Key Levels to Watch Today:

• – Immediate resistance and range highs
• A break above could open the door toward $98,300
• A failure to break keeps Bitcoin in a range-bound structure, with downside risk if selling pressure increases

Today’s price action around $95,500 will likely dictate whether Bitcoin regains bullish momentum—or remains stuck in consolidation for now.