5 min readBitcoin is extending its recovery from last week’s low, rising to 119.5k, its highest level since mid-August. The largest cryptocurrency has traded up 2% over the past 24 hours and risen 6% so far this week as “Uptober” gets off to a strong start.
The move higher is being seen across the cryptocurrency market with Ethereum trading 2.2% higher, BNB gaining 3.1% and Solana adding 2.8%. The total cryptocurrency market cap has risen 2.3% to $4.09 trillion, a level that was last seen in mid-August and mid-September.
Elsewhere, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, and Gold are also trading at record levels.
Rate cut optimism lifts BTC
The market mood has been boosted by weaker-than-expected ADP payroll data yesterday, which has cemented market expectations for an October rate cut, even as the US government shutdown continues. ADP payroll data showed that private payrolls unexpectedly fell by -32k in September, defying expectations of a rise to 50k. August’s payrolls were also revised lower to -3k from +54k. The data highlights weakness in the US labour market. The market is now pricing in a 97% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut this month.
US jobless claims data was scheduled to be released today. However, this is the first victim of the US government shutdown and therefore won’t be released. US non-farm payroll data tomorrow is not expected either, and CPI inflation figures next week may not be released if the Republicans and Democrats fail to reach a deal over funding.
For now, the market is looking past this. However, a prolonged period of no key data points for the Federal Reserve makes it very difficult for the central bank to make monetary policy decisions. This could eventually hurt sentiment and weigh on risk assets such as BTC.
Ethereum rises to 4400 as momentum builds
Ethereum trades 2.2% higher over the past 24 hours and has gained almost 10% this week, driven by a favorable macro backdrop, increased adoption, institutional demand, and seasonality tailwinds.
It’s not just Bitcoin that has seen a revival in institutional demand. ETH ETFS have also recovered this week. ETH ETFs have seen net inflows for the past three days, totaling $755.2 million, after experiencing net outflows of $795.6 million the previous week.
News that SWIFT has teamed with Consensys, a blockchain company that builds infrastructure on Ethereum, is adding to the bullish picture for ETH. The partnership will expand across 30 major financial institutions, including JPMorgan and Bank of America, to create a new, faster, and more cost-effective process for real-time cross-border payments. Even if this process accounts for only a small share of SWIFT’s on-chain volume, it could provide a significant boost.
ETH bull flag pattern
ETH/USDT trades within a bull flag bullish continuation pattern. The price has extended its recovery from 3825 and is testing the 50 SMA resistance at 4400. Buyers, supported by momentum, will look to rise above here and 4600, the upper band of the falling channel, to extend gains towards 4955 and fresh record highs.
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