BTC Crashes Below $100K as Markets Price Out Fed Cut. ETH tanks 9%

Bitcoin has tumbled below the 100,000 psychological level, dropping to a six-month low of 95.9k, tracking a broader sell-off in risk assets. Growing bets that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in December weighed on sentiment, sparking a risk-off move.  

Bitcoin has fallen 6% over the past 24 hours, Ethereum has plunged 9% as has Solana. The total crypto market cap has slumped 6.2% to $3.28 trillion, a level last seen in early July. Meanwhile, US stocks registered the worst day in over a month, and tech stocks slumped. 

Markets have rapidly priced out expectations of a December rate cut this week amid growing uncertainty over the world’s largest economy. While the US government has reopened, officials have signalled that they may never release October employment and inflation readings due to the shutdown. This means the Fed will still be flying blind into its December FOMC meeting, making it more likely the central bank will leave interest rates unchanged and wait for further data and greater visibility in 2026. 

Markets are now pricing the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the December 10-11 meeting below 50%, down sharply from 63% at the start of the week. The lack of data and heightened uncertainty about the health of the US economy are hurting risk appetite, prompting traders to stay on the sidelines. 

In addition to the challenging macro backdrop, institutional demand for Bitcoin has slowed considerably. BTC ETF saw nearly $897 million in outflows yesterday and is headed for its third straight week of outflows. 

ETH Tumbles on Macro Weakness: ETFs See Record Outflows, Whales at Risk 

Ethereum has plunged over 9% across the past 24 hours amid profit-taking and loss realisation as the macro climate deteriorates and institutional demand evaporates.  

ETH ETFs recorded $183.7 million in outflows on Thursday, putting the weekly total at $550.67 in weekly outflows. In November, outflows have reached $1.06 billion, the largest monthly outflow since ETH ETFs launched in July last year. 

According to Santiment data, investors have booked $500 million in profits and $100 million in losses since Sunday. Loss taking is a key on-chain metric to watch. For now, loss taking is moderate. However, an increase in this figure leads to heavy selling and a sharp price decline. 

Whales holding between 10k-100k ETH have an average cost basis is $2900. A fall below the cost basis often sparks strong selling as whales look to cut their losses. These wallets have increased their balance by 890k ETH over the past month, absorbing supply as ETH’s price declined. Should this cohort become net sellers, the decline could accelerate. 

ETH technical analysis 

ETH faced rejection around 3550, the rising trendline resistance, the 200 SMA, and the 50% fib level from the 2100 low and 4955 high. The price has rebounded lower, testing support at the 61.8% Fib retracement at 3200. Below here, the psychological level 3000 comes into focus, which is also the November low. Below here, 2700 comes into focus.  

Any recovery would need to rise above 3550 and 3800 to negate the downtrend. 

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