5 min readBitcoin is trading above 110 on Wednesday, recovering some recent losses, although the mood remains cautious towards the crypto market due to uncertainty over U.S. trade tariffs and lower interest rates.
Bitcoin’s slide into September is a strong reminder that seasonality is not on side this month. BTC has fallen in nine of the last 14 September months.
Safe havens such as gold on the US dollar have outperformed crypto this week amid rising concerns over high debt levels in Western economies. Gold rose to a record high above 350. There is a level of caution ahead of Friday’s US nonfarm payroll report, given high expectations that the Fed will cut rates this month by 25 basis points.
Inflation in the US remains sticky, but weakness in the jobs market is expected to encourage the Fed to loosen monetary policy. However, signs of significant weakness in the labour market could unnerve the market and raise fears of an economic slowdown. JOLTS job openings are due later today.
News that MicroStrategy, the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, purchased more BTC did little to support the BTC price. The firm purchased 4048 Bitcoin for almost 450 million U.S. dollars in the final week of August. However, should corporations continue purchasing BTC for treasury strategies, this could offer longer-term support to the price.
Separately, another crypto IPO could bring another positive catalyst to the horizon. Blockchain lender Figure Technologies is seeking a valuation of up to $4.13 billion through its IPO, according to a filing with the SEC.
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Can Ethereum return to $5000?
Ethereum holds above the 4300 level, having fallen 15% from its August 24 record high.
The pullback was part of a broader market correction amid a souring market mood combined with weak seasonality for cryptos and stocks in September.
Still, Ethereum could be set for a strong final quarter for the year, even if near-term trade is choppy.
Ethereum has experienced strong institutional and corporate demand from ETH treasury strategies and ETF demand. ETFs added 250k ETH last week, and strategic reserve companies such as BitMine and SharpLink Gaming collectively added 330k ETH across the same period. Treasury accumulation has been a defining theme across the summer.
Ethereum’s network activity has shown notable strength. A weekly 30% jump in fees has seen Ethereum overtake Tron as the highest-grossing network. Including Layer 2 activity, Ethereum’s total fees reached $16.3 million, over double Solana’s $7.9 million.
Still, near-term conditions remain mixed. ETF flows have been inconsistent, and macroeconomic risks surrounding rates continue to influence risk sentiment. Ether derivative traders remain skeptical about ETH reclaiming $5000 near term. The monthly futures premium is 5%, at the edge of a neutral-bearish market. However, there are signs that trades are not abandoning ETH with futures aggregate open interest rising 26% in 30 days.
Where next for ETH?
After facing rejection at 4955, a fresh record high, ETH/USD rebounded lower, breaking out below its multi-month ascending channel before finding support around the 4300 support zone. The RSI is neutral.
Should sellers break down the 4300 support zone, this opens the door to 4110, the 23.6% Fib retracement (of the 1385 low and 4955 high). A break below here and 4060, the 20 August low and 50 SMA, creates a lower low.
If the 4300 support zone continues to hold ETH could look to recover towards 4550, the rising trendline resistance. Above here, 4955, and fresh record highs come into play.
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