5 min readAfter falling to 105.5k yesterday, BTC is recouping those losses on Wednesday, pushing to 107.5k. BTC continues to trade within a tight range amid a cautious market mood ahead of Thursday’s non-farm payroll reports and as Trump’s one big beautiful bill passes a vote in the Senate.
Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill passed the Senate vote on Tuesday by a 51-50 margin and is now heading back to the House for review of the amendments, with Trump looking to finalize the bill by Friday.
The Big Beautiful Bill combines generous tax cuts, spending initiatives, and policy changes to extend tax legislation from Trump’s previous administration. The bill has received plenty of criticism amid expectations that it will increase U.S. debt pile by $3.3 trillion.
The bill contained no direct regulatory relief for digital assets, which was a disappointment. However, the increased fiscal risk could accelerate the devaluation of the US dollar, favouring BTC.
Will the Fed cut rates sooner?
Weak data and dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell are also pulling the USD lower and boosting BTC. Powell backed a wait-and-see approach to future rate cuts at a panel discussion with global central bankers this week; however, Powell, who has been facing intensifying pressures from President Trump to lower borrowing costs, said that a July rate cut was not off the table.
With this in mind, attention will shift to tomorrow’s nonfarm payroll report, lending it additional significance. An unexpected weakness in the June NFP could increase the likelihood of a July rate cut.
ADP payrolls, considered a leading indicator for the non-farm payroll, showed that the private sector shed 33,000 jobs in June, missing expectations for a 100,000 increase, which could be a sign that the economy is losing steam.
Ethereum consolidates, but on-chain data points to a breakout
Ethereum has remained under the radar as Bitcoin has grabbed recent headlines. While fundamentals remain strong as institutional and corporate demand rise, on-chain data is also encouraging. Data is showing that long-term holders have quietly amassed large quantities of ETH. This could be setting the stage for a big move for the token.
According to on-chain trackers, almost 30 million ETH is sitting in wallets that have never offloaded a single coin. These so-called accumulation addresses are sitting at an all-time high, buying in even as Ether trades well below its peak. This suggests a growing conviction among these investors that a rally is forthcoming.
Meanwhile, daily transactions on Ethereum have topped 1.5 million, the highest since early 2023. When on-chain activity often indicates increased user activity, it signifies higher participation and growing confidence, which is a positive for the price.
ETH outlook – technical analysis
ETH trades around the 2450 level but remains below its 50- and 200-day SMAs, which have proved tough resistance levels to crack. Buyers, supported by the 50 SM crossing above the 200 SMA in a Golden cross bullish signal, will need to rise above 2550, the 200 and 50 SMA, to head towards 2750 and then to 3000.
A break below 24440, the 38.2% Fib retracement level, opens the door to 2250, the rising trendline support. A break below 2110, the June low creates a lower low.
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