4 min readAfter the clean break and retest of the high time frame 1.1200 level about a month ago, EUR/USD has now established a solid structure within a region that has lacked any significant formation for over three years. Price is now making its way toward the 1.1600 resistance zone, a major level that could decide whether this move is part of a broader cyclical shift.
This development comes amid growing US dollar weakness, and there is a case to be made that EUR/USD may be entering a new long-term cycle. The question now is whether price will continue to push through resistance and expand higher, or if we will begin to establish a new range between 1.1200 and 1.1600.
On the daily chart, structure remains clearly bullish, with higher highs and higher lows. A potential range is beginning to emerge, marked by white dotted lines, with 1.1600 now acting as a possible top. If price fails to break higher and rejects here, it could signal the start of a high time frame distribution range, or potentially a re-accumulation zone before further upside.
In either scenario, the 1.1600 level remains the focus for traders and investors, especially with rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East contributing to global volatility.
On the 4-hour chart, we see a well-defined bullish trend, with price currently bouncing from the 4-hour 20 EMA, shown as a white line. This suggests a higher low may be forming. However, if this level around 1.15220 fails to hold, a move down to the 1.14500 support area becomes more likely. This level also aligns with the local long reload zone, adding further confluence.
For now, EUR/USD remains bullish across time frames, but price action around 1.1600 can determine whether this becomes a breakout expansion or the beginning of a longer consolidation phase.
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