5 min readGold dropped sharply on Thursday, falling from above $5,085 to an intraday low of $4,878 after Bloomberg reported an internal Kremlin memo proposing Russia’s return to dollar-denominated energy settlements as part of a broader economic partnership with the Trump administration.
The proposal matters for gold because Russia has been one of the primary drivers of the de-dollarization trend that helped push the metal from $2,000 to its all-time high of $5,595. Moscow holds over 2,335 tonnes of gold, roughly 33% of its total reserves, and spent the last decade aggressively buying bullion to reduce exposure to the US financial system. Even a partial reversal of that position could weaken one of the structural pillars behind gold’s historic rally.
Adding to the pressure, the delayed January NFP came in nearly double expectations at 130,000 jobs, strengthening the dollar. Today’s delayed January CPI report is the next major catalyst and could determine whether gold finds a floor here or breaks down further. Let’s look at the 4-hour chart to map out the key levels.
Is the Ascending Triangle invalidated?
Looking at the 4-hour chart, we have been tracking an ascending triangle pattern on gold over recent sessions, with a measured move target pointing toward the $5,500 region. That setup now appears to be failing. Thursday’s selloff broke below the ascending trend line that had been supporting price since the early February lows near $4,400, and gold is now testing the $5,000 region from below in what looks like a bearish retest. This level carries extra weight because it confluences with the broken ascending trend line, meaning both horizontal and diagonal support have now flipped to resistance.
One thing worth watching is the On Balance Volume indicator in the lower panel. OBV is still holding its structure despite the selloff in price, which suggests that selling volume has not yet overwhelmed buying volume on a cumulative basis. However, if price continues to break down and OBV loses its horizontal support, that could confirm distribution and could signal further downside for gold.
The key level to watch on the upside is $5,000. If gold reclaims this level, the failed triangle could be invalidated and the breakdown could look more like a news-driven deviation below the trend line rather than a genuine structural break. Today’s CPI release at 1:30 PM UTC is a potential catalyst that could drive that kind of reversal if the data comes in softer than expected.
On the downside, the local low at $4,880 is the level that bulls would want holding. A break below could open the door for a continuation lower, with the next major target sitting at the higher time frame lows near $4,500. That level marked the base of the February recovery and is where strong dip-buying demand emerged during the initial correction from the all-time high.
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