4 min readWelcome to today’s technical update on USD/JPY.
The Japanese yen continues to weaken following the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) recent decision to maintain interest rates at 0.5 percent while also cutting both GDP and inflation forecasts. Governor Ueda’s cautious tone during his press conference further reduced market expectations for near-term rate hikes, reinforcing yen softness.
Even though the broader US dollar has shown weakness over recent months, the dollar appears to have found firm support and is currently trading bullishly against the yen. Market participants are also closely watching today’s upcoming US non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate releases at 12:30 UTC, which could act as significant catalysts for short-term volatility and directional movement.
Technical outlook
From a technical standpoint, USD/JPY continues to show bullish structure, currently trading around 145.00 and maintaining higher lows within the recent daily range. The MACD is giving a potential buy signal, with the signal line crossing above the MACD line — a pattern that has historically indicated bullish momentum in USD/JPY.
The 10-day EMA, now positioned at 143.7, sits between the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels, creating a key support area in case of a pullback. Just below this zone, the daily 20 EMA is positioned around 144.00, offering additional support and potentially attracting buyers who may front-run the major breakout level.
Key levels to watch
High timeframe resistance starts around 146.5 and extends up to 148.00.
Support is located at the breakout area near 143.5 and at the 20 EMA around 144.00.
A sustained break above 146.5 could open the path toward testing the 148.00 resistance, while a failure to hold the 143.5 to 144.00 support area might signal a short-term loss of bullish momentum.
While the technical bias remains bullish, a failure to hold above these support zones could open the door to a deeper pullback. Macroeconomic data surprises or shifts in yield sentiment may also act as catalysts for short-term yen strength.
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