5 min readBitcoin is edging higher, recovering from the 60,000 it reached yesterday, but it is on track for a weekly loss. It’s in a cautious market mood as geopolitical risks remain high and the US non-farm payroll data is awaited.
While there have been no further developments in the Middle East, the mood remains cautious that tensions could escalate across the weekend. Traditional markets closed on Saturday and Sunday could leave Bitcoin as the barometer for risk sentiment. However, while the market plays a waiting game, attention is turning to non-farm payroll data later today.
US non-farm payroll data in focus
Expectations are for the US non-farm payroll to show that 140,000 jobs were added in September, roughly in line with August. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.2%, and average hourly earnings are set to rise 0.3% m/m.
This is the last insightful jobs report that the Fed will have before the FOMC meeting in November, given the strikes at Boeing and the US ports (which have now ended) that occurred in early October.
However, given that the Fed has indicated that it’s looking to cut rates to 25 basis points rather than 50 basis points moving forward, barring huge misses on the upside or downside, the NFP may not inject huge volatility into the market. Instead, the figures could show that the US job market is cooling modestly and that the economy is on track for a soft landing.
Has Satoshi been identified?
Aside from geopolitical and economic developments, a TV documentary maker has claimed to have discovered Satoshi Nakamoto’s identity. The identity will be revealed in an HBO documentary next Wednesday, October 9th.
Interestingly, as the documentary’s airing date draws closer, several high-value wallets from the Satoshi era have become active for the first time since 2009.
According to Bitcoin Magazine, 250 bitcoins worth around 15,000,000 at the current rate have been drained from wallets over the past two weeks. While the wallets are not officially linked to those used by Satoshi, they have been dormant since the early days of Bitcoin and may well have been Satoshi’s early collaborators.
XRP slides after Ripple vs. SEC developments
XRP is on track to fall 15% this week as investors grapple with heightened tension in the Middle East hurting market sentiment, reined-in Fed rate cut expectations, and news that the SEC appealed an earlier court ruling that was viewed as favorable to Ripple in the long-running legal battle between the two sides.
The SEC has filed to appeal the 2023 court ruling that ordered Ripple to pay a $125 million fine, a fraction of the $2 billion the regulator sought.
The appeal came a day after Bitwise became the first to file with the SEC for an exchange-traded fund that investors directly in XRP, the world’s 7th largest cryptocurrency.
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