5 min readBitcoin is falling on Thursday, unable to sustain an unexpected rally in the previous session that had raised hopes among investors that the crypto market was bottoming out after its four-month slide.
The largest cryptocurrency fell by around 3.5% at the time of writing to 66.5K, after rising to 70K yesterday, a 10-day high, tracking a broader rebound in risk assets, particularly tech stocks.
However, a new day brings with it a new mood towards AI. The tech-heavy Nasdaq is trading 1.3% lower, pulled down by Nvidia. The AI bellwether, Nvidia, is falling by more than 5% despite reporting higher-than-expected earnings and revenue for the three months to the end of January. The chipmaker also guided for stronger-than-expected revenue in the current quarter, as it continues to benefit from strong AI demand for its advanced chips. The stock, which is heavily weighted in the S&P500 and in the Nasdaq, fell 5%. This shows that the bar is extremely high for a positive surprise, which isn’t surprising, as the share price has rallied 1400% since October 2022.
Given Nvidia’s role as an AI bellwether and its heavy weighting, moves in the share price impact broader market risk sentiment, not just in equities but also in crypto.
Ethereum: Institutional demand rises, whales accumulate & volatility increases
Ethereum is falling, tracking Bitcoin and the wider cryptocurrency market lower. However, the price continues to hold above the key 2k level, supported partly by a sharp rise in institutional demand. ETH ETF recorded $157 million on Wednesday, up from just $9 million the previous day.
Whales are also showing signs of accumulation. Whale activity is shifting away from BTC and towards ETH. A large whale recently swapped 240 BTC, worth around $16 million, into ETH, signalling a rotation into the second-largest cryptocurrency. Separately, another whale withdrew 20,000 ETH ($38 million) from Binance and Deribit in a short window. Large exchange withdrawals typically point towards longer-term holding.
On-chain data also points to another change. Ethereum’s 30-day realised volatility has risen sharply to its highest level since March 2025. This signals that ETH has transitioned from a period of calm to increased activity, with price ranges widening and momentum building. This usually happens near structural support or resistance or ahead of trend acceleration rather than exhaustion.
ETH technical analysis
ETH/USDT trades within a falling wedge pattern. The price has recovered from the falling trendline support at1740 and pushed above the 20 SMA to 2150. The price has since eased back and is testing the 20 SMA support.
Should the support hold, buyers will look to rise above 2175, the 78.6% Fib retracement of the 1380 low and 4955 high, to change the bearish structure. A rise above here exposes the 50 SMA at 2515, before attention turns to 2760, the 61.8% Fib level.
A break below the 20 SMA could see sellers test 1800 support, with a break below 1740 needed to create a lower low.
Trading involves risk.
Author
Risk DisclaimerThe content provided here is for informational purposes only. It is not intended as personal investment advice and does not constitute a solicitation or invitation to engage in any financial transactions, investments, or related activities. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The financial products offered by the Company are complex and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. These products may not be suitable for all investors. Before engaging, you should consider whether you understand how these leveraged products work and whether you can afford the high risk of losing your money.
The Company does not accept clients from the Restricted Jurisdictions as indicated in our website/ T&C. Some services or products may not be available in your jurisdiction.
The applicable legal entity and its respective products and services depend on the client’s country of residence and the entity with which the client has established a contractual relationship during registration.
