Bitcoin strength returns as Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz. These are the key levels to watch

The Middle East conflict escalated sharply over the weekend. On Friday, the US military struck military targets on Kharg Island, the hub responsible for the vast majority of Iran’s oil exports, while stopping short of hitting oil infrastructure directly. In response, Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei confirmed that the Strait of Hormuz would remain open to all nations except the US and Israel, a partial easing of the blockade that had rattled global energy markets for weeks.

The development appears to have acted as a catalyst for Bitcoin, which surged to its highest levels since early February as risk appetite returned to crypto markets. However, as we will see on the charts, volume is telling us that there may be something else happening below the surface.

Daily chart analysis

On the daily time frame, Bitcoin (BTC) has pushed to a high of $74,425, a level not seen since 4 February. What stands out here is the RSI, which has not yet reached overbought territory and continues to make higher highs in line with price. This is a healthy sign, suggesting that momentum is building rather than fading.

Below the RSI on the chart, the On Balance Volume (OBV) indicator is also telling a constructive story. For the first time since Bitcoin broke down below $80,000 at the start of the year, OBV appears to be breaking out and making new highs. This points to genuine accumulation and growing participation behind the move.

One caveat worth noting: today’s daily candle is less than 10 hours old, meaning much of the day’s volume is yet to come in. The full picture on daily volume will become clearer by the close. For now, both momentum and OBV are supportive, but the lower time frames offer a more nuanced read on the volume story.

Key level to watch: $74,425 to the upside, with $72,000 as the immediate support below.

4-hour chart analysis

Zooming into the 4-hour time frame, the local trend has been constructive, with price steadily pushing higher since the lows. However, the volume behind this move warrants caution. Each successive peak in this rally has been accompanied by lower and lower volume, with overall volume trending downward throughout the move, a pattern that also appeared during the previous test of this resistance zone.

This divergence between price and volume suggests that the current move may lack the bullish conviction typically needed to sustain a clean breakout. That said, this does not rule out a breakout entirely. Markets can and do break higher on low volume before volume rushes in to confirm the move.

Should bulls manage to push through the $72,000 to $74,000 key local resistance zone, the next area of interest above becomes the $80,000 to $85,000 high time frame resistance region. A clean break and hold above $74,000 could be the first signal that a more meaningful recovery could be underway.

For now, the resistance zone between $72,000 and $74,000 is the level to watch. A breakout with volume confirmation could strengthen the bull case considerably. Failure to hold above this area could see price pull back toward the range equilibrium around $67,000.

For more context on Bitcoin’s broader structure, see our previous Bitcoin analysis here

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