6 min readBrent crude oil posted one of its most volatile sessions on record on Monday after US President Donald Trump announced a five-day pause on strikes against Iranian power plants, claiming “productive conversations” with Tehran toward ending the war. Oil prices plunged more than 14% intraday before clawing back some losses.
Iran, however, categorically denied that any talks had taken place, with the foreign ministry dismissing Trump’s claims as an attempt to manipulate energy markets. The contradiction has left traders caught between two competing narratives, and with Trump’s strike pause set to expire on Friday, the clock is ticking.
The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, the IEA has warned that the current crisis is worse than the 1970s oil shocks, and Goldman Sachs has raised its Brent forecast, warning that prices could exceed the 2008 record if the strait remains shut for an extended period. A record 400 million barrel strategic reserve release from IEA member nations is already underway, but as the agency itself has acknowledged, stockpile releases alone are not a long-term solution.
Daily technical analysis
Brent crude daily chart showing the ascending trendline and $92-$95 support zone holding despite Monday’s sharp sell-off.
Looking at the daily chart for Brent crude, what stands out is that despite the extreme volatility and headline-driven swings, price is still technically forming an uptrend. A series of higher lows has created an ascending trendline that has held since the initial breakout in early March.
Monday’s sharp sell-off produced a large bearish candle, but price has held above the $92-$95 support zone, a level that has acted as a base since March 12. This zone is gaining additional significance as the daily 20 EMA is now converging with both the ascending trendline and the upper boundary of this range, creating a confluence of support.
It is worth noting that traditional technical analysis can be inconsistent in such a volatile, news-driven environment. However, framing the price action from a higher timeframe perspective still provides a useful overview of the overall direction. The key levels to watch:
- $92-$95: The primary support zone, reinforced by the ascending trendline and the converging daily 20 EMA. A decisive break below this area could signal a structural shift in the trend.
- $104-$108: The resistance zone from the recent consolidation range. A recovery back into this area would suggest the uptrend is reasserting itself.
- $85: The previous resistance level from the early March breakout. If the $92-$95 base fails, this potentially becomes the next major downside target.
When we last covered Brent crude, price was consolidating above the $92 resistance-turned-support level. That zone is now being tested again under very different circumstances.
4-hour technical analysis
Brent crude 4-hour chart showing price breaking below the 20 and 50 EMAs for the first time since the uptrend began, with the $100-$104 local resistance zone overhead.
On the 4-hour chart, the sell-off has pushed Brent below the 20 and 50 EMAs for the first time since this explosive trend began. This is a notable shift in short-term momentum and suggests that the immediate path of least resistance may have changed.
The $100-$104 zone now stands as the local resistance area that bulls would need to reclaim to show they are back in control. Price is currently trading below both moving averages, and the EMAs are beginning to flatten, which typically signals a transition from a trending market to a more range-bound or corrective phase.
On the downside, the $92-$95 zone remains the critical line in the sand. A confirmed break below this level on the 4-hour timeframe could open the door to a deeper correction and potentially signal that the trend has broken down.
Given how heavily this market is being driven by geopolitical headlines, any shift in the diplomatic situation, whether it’s confirmation of genuine talks or a collapse of the fragile pause, could have an outsized impact on price. The structure is starting to become more defined, but traders should remain cautious and prepared for continued headline-driven volatility until the situation between the US and Iran becomes clearer.
Trading involves risk.
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