Gold: $3,300 Support Holding, but Bearish Structure May Be Forming

Welcome to another Daily Technical Update on Gold.

In yesterday’s update, we noted that if the $3,412 swing low failed to hold, we could expect a deeper move toward the $3,370 region. That scenario played out, with price dropping through the swing low and tagging the high timeframe 0.236 Fibonacci retracement near $3,370. From there, gold continued lower, eventually testing the $3,300 support level, which aligns closely with the 0.382 Fib retracement—a level highlighted in yesterday’s update as key support.

At the time of writing, $3,300 is acting as solid support, and buyers have stepped in to defend the level.

However, while support is holding for now, price action is beginning to hint at a potential short-term top formation. In the chart below, we’ve mapped out a possible head and shoulders pattern:

• The $3,300 zone is forming the neckline
• The left shoulder formed near the earlier 0.236 swing high
• A potential right shoulder could take shape either at that same level or on a move back up toward the previous $3,400 swing low

If this structure plays out and breaks to the downside, we’ve used the measured move principle to project a possible target around $3,100. This level aligns well with the 0.702 Fibonacci retracement and a high timeframe breakout zone, adding further technical significance.

We’ve also marked an invalidation scenario on the chart, illustrated with a yellow path, where price would need to reclaim the right shoulder zone and break above it—effectively neutralizing the bearish pattern and restoring bullish momentum.

With volatility remaining high, this is a key moment for gold. Price could continue consolidating here, break higher, or confirm the reversal. These are the levels to watch for anyone trading or managing exposure in this market:

• • Key Support: $3,300
  • Critical Breakdown Trigger: $3,300 neckline
  • Bearish Target if H&S Breaks: ~$3,100
  • Next Key Support Below: $3,250
  • Invalidation Path: Break and close above the right shoulder area

Always trade with proper risk management—especially when price is moving this fast.

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