Gold breaks key resistance as US-Iran standoff and tariff chaos converge. Here are the levels that matter

Gold (XAU/USD) started the week with strong bullish momentum, breaking above the significant resistance zone around $5,100 that had kept price confined since 30 January. Two major macro catalysts are converging. The US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s IEEPA tariffs on Friday, and the president responded by escalating to a 15% global tariff over the weekend, creating fresh trade policy uncertainty. At the same time, US-Iran tensions continue to intensify, with Trump’s 10-15 day ultimatum on Iran’s nuclear programme approaching and reports of military buildup near the Strait of Hormuz fuelling safe-haven demand.

Daily chart analysis

Looking at the daily chart, gold has broken above the significant $5,100 resistance zone, an area that we have been writing about extensively during the past month. By drawing a horizontal resistance at $5,100 and an ascending trendline connecting the series of higher lows, we can see a pattern that resembles an ascending triangle.

This is not a textbook ascending triangle, as price action patterns rarely are. It’s also worth noting that ascending triangles are traditionally continuation patterns where price enters from below. In this case, gold entered the pattern from above following the sharp selloff from the late January highs, which changes the overall probabilistic outlook.

Nonetheless, we do have a potential measured move target. This is calculated by taking the distance from the low of the pattern to the horizontal resistance at its widest point. The measured move aligns with the previous all-time highs for gold near $5,600.

4-hour chart analysis

Zooming into the 4-hour chart, the $5,100 breakout level stands out as clear potential support. Below that, the 20 EMA and 50 EMA on the 4-hour timeframe are both sitting around $5,025-$5,050, where they align with the local Fibonacci reload zone (the 0.618-0.702 retracement area).

This creates a confluence of support that could be significant. If price retraces back below the major breakout level, a bullish reaction within this reload zone could signal that bulls are ready to step in and defend gold’s breakout.