5 min readGold (XAU/USD) finds itself at a pivotal moment. After a rally that carried the precious metal to all-time highs above $5,600, price has pulled back sharply and is now consolidating around the $5,000 psychological level.
Two forces are pulling in opposite directions. Geopolitical uncertainty from the Middle East conflict continues to underpin safe-haven demand. But war-driven inflation fears are forcing traders to scale back rate cut expectations, strengthening the dollar and capping gold’s upside. Something has to give, and today’s Fed decision could be the trigger.
Daily timeframe: a familiar pattern at a critical level
Gold (XAU/USD) daily chart showing a familiar lower-high consolidation structure, declining volume, and the key $5,050 to $5,100 resistance zone.
The daily chart is showing a structure that has played out before. Back in October 2025, gold printed a blow-off top with a sharp volume spike, then pulled back into a consolidation of lower highs and declining volume. It held the daily 50 EMA throughout, before pushing to new highs. Notably, the FOMC met on October 28-29 during that same consolidation period.
The current setup looks remarkably similar. A blow-off top in late January has given way to the same lower-high structure with declining volume. A reclaim of the $5,050 to $5,100 resistance zone could suggest history is repeating.
The warning signs are there, however:
- The RSI has dropped below 50, just as it did in October. A bearish rejection at that level, combined with a failure at $5,050 to $5,100, could shift the outlook more bearish.
- Both OBV and ADL have broken below local trend line support. The broader structure remains bullish, but the breaks are worth watching.
As covered in our previous gold analysis, the bullish case could still remain intact. Whether it holds may depend on what the Fed signals today.
Key levels:
- Resistance: $5,050 to $5,100
- Support: Daily 50 EMA area (~$4,933)
4-hour timeframe: the levels that matter into the Fed decision
Gold (XAU/USD) 4-hour chart highlighting immediate support at $4,970, the key $4,900 confluence zone, and a bearish RSI range heading into today’s FOMC decision.
The 4-hour chart narrows down the key areas to watch.
Price is currently sitting on immediate support at $4,970. Below that, a more significant support zone comes in around $4,900, which also converges with the daily 50 EMA, making it a high-confluence area.
The 4-hour RSI is in bearish territory, trading between 30 and 50. Short-term momentum remains heavy.
A dovish Fed surprise could provide the catalyst bulls need to reclaim $5,050 to $5,100. A hawkish surprise outcome could see the lower support levels tested quickly.
Key levels:
- Resistance: $5,050 to $5,100
- Immediate support: $4,970
- Key support zone: $4,900 confluencing with the daily 50 EMA
Trading involves risk.
Author
Risk DisclaimerThe content provided here is for informational purposes only. It is not intended as personal investment advice and does not constitute a solicitation or invitation to engage in any financial transactions, investments, or related activities. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The financial products offered by the Company are complex and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. These products may not be suitable for all investors. Before engaging, you should consider whether you understand how these leveraged products work and whether you can afford the high risk of losing your money.
The Company does not accept clients from the Restricted Jurisdictions as indicated in our website/ T&C. Some services or products may not be available in your jurisdiction.
The applicable legal entity and its respective products and services depend on the client’s country of residence and the entity with which the client has established a contractual relationship during registration.
