War in the Middle East: what it means for oil, gold, and Bitcoin

The United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran this weekend, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and triggering an immediate wave of retaliatory missile attacks across the Gulf region. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes, is practically shut. Over 1,400 flights have been cancelled. Markets haven’t opened yet, but when they do on Monday, traders may want to prepare for significant volatility across all markets including oil, gold, and Bitcoin.

Here’s what the charts are telling us.

Oil (Brent crude)

Brent crude has been in a downtrend since March 2024 — but that trend is now breaking down.

For the first time, price has pushed above the second standard deviation of the long-term linear regression channel, printing clear higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart. The 21 EMA, which acted as resistance throughout most of the downtrend, is now flipping to support — a classic sign of a trend reversal.

The Middle East conflict adds a powerful fundamental tailwind to what was already becoming a technically bullish setup.

Key levels to watch:

• $78-79 — major resistance above. A move here could be a significant rally and could accelerate fast if Strait of Hormuz disruptions continue
• $71 — key support below. This level needs to hold for the uptrend to stay healthy

Bottom line: With the Strait of Hormuz practically shut and OPEC meeting today, Monday’s open could see oil gap sharply higher.

Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold was already breaking out before the conflict started — the news has only added momentum.

After reclaiming the $5,100 level as support on 23 February, price climbed steadily through the week and broke out again right before Friday’s close. That move suggests traders were already pricing in geopolitical risk. The chart shows a clear measured move structure with price currently around $5,280 and pointing higher.

Key levels to watch:

• $5,600 — the previous all-time high and the obvious upside target. A break above here could be a historic moment for gold
• $5,100 — the level gold broke above in February, now acting as support. A pullback to this zone could be a buying opportunity

Bottom line: Gold was already bullish before this weekend. With safe haven demand now surging, the path of least resistance looks higher. Watch for a fast move towards $5,600 if Monday’s open is risk-off.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Bitcoin’s reaction to the news tells us a lot about where the market stands.

When the first reports of the attack emerged at around 07:27 UTC+1 on Saturday, 28 February, Bitcoin sold off sharply. As rumours spread that Khamenei had been killed, the selling accelerated. But once his death was confirmed by Iranian state media, Bitcoin reversed and rallied straight back up to test the $68,000 resistance zone — suggesting the initial move was panic selling rather than a structural breakdown.

Key levels to watch:

• $68,000 — resistance above. A sustained break here could open the door to further upside
• $63,000 — support below. This level has held multiple times. A break on Monday could be a significant bearish signal

Bottom line: Bitcoin is sitting between two clear levels going into Monday’s open. The direction it breaks could set the tone for crypto markets for the rest of the week.

What to watch on Monday

• Oil — any further news on the Strait of Hormuz or OPEC’s response could move price immediately
• Gold — watch whether the pre-weekend breakout follows through at the open
• Bitcoin — the $68,000 resistance and $63,000 support are the two potential lines in the sand

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