Bitcoin breaks below key support as the selloff deepens. Is $60,000 next?

The crypto market has been under relentless selling pressure since Bitcoin (BTC/USD) peaked near $126,000 in October 2025. Price is now trading around $63,000, inside a key support zone with $60,000 as the major level underneath.

Two things make this area significant:

• The 200-day SMA sits at roughly $58,500, a level that has historically acted as major support
• The weekly RSI is at 25.58, close to its lowest reading in Bitcoin’s history

What happened last time conditions looked like this

During the 2022 bear market, when price first reached the 200-day SMA, the weekly RSI also dropped into oversold territory. But that wasn’t the bottom. Price went on to decline another 30% from there before printing bullish divergences on the RSI and eventually forming the cycle low.

A similar 30% decline from current levels would bring BTC/USD down toward $40,000, which would line up with historical key level from the previous cycle.

The bigger picture still favours the bears

Through the lens of Dow Theory, the chart shows what appears to be a distribution range between roughly $90,000 and $126,000 through late 2025 before the breakdown. The 20 EMA has also crossed below the 50 EMA on the weekly chart, which typically confirms a bearish shift in momentum.

While the 200-day SMA and deeply oversold RSI could attract buyers, it’s also possible we are simply in the early stages of a new downtrend after exiting the distribution range. The question is whether $40,000 is where the accumulation phase could begin, or whether price deviates well below the 200 SMA and forms its base at much lower levels.

For now, the trend appears to be accelerating to the downside with no confirmed reversal signals on the weekly time frame.

Zooming into the 4-hour chart

On the 4-hour time frame, BTC/USD broke below the $65,000 support zone and dropped to $62,800. That $65,000 region now appears to have flipped to immediate resistance and could be the level bulls need to reclaim to regain any control on the local time frame.

The daily 20 SMA sits up around $70,000, well above current price, which suggests the bearish momentum remains firmly intact. Reclaiming that level would likely be a clear sign of strength, but there are multiple resistance levels to work through before it even comes into play.

It’s also worth noting that Trump’s State of the Union address is scheduled for later tonight at 02:00 UTC (25 February), which could inject volatility depending on any comments around trade policy or tariffs. With BTC already under pressure from the broader risk-off mood driven by the 15% global tariff escalation, any further hawkish trade rhetoric could add additional fuel to the selloff.

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