BTC Falls as Middle East Uncertainty and $14B Options Expiry Weigh on Sentiment. SOL tests key support

Bitcoin is falling on Friday as market sentiment continues to deteriorate amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding Iran, while a large $14 billion options expiry is also keeping traders cautious. 

Bitcoin is down around 2.6% over the past 24 hours, trading near $68.6K after breaking below the key $70,000 level on Thursday. Other major cryptocurrencies are also under pressure, with Ethereum down 1.8% and Solana falling 3.7%. 

Geopolitical uncertainty continues 

The sell-off comes as President Trump extended a pause on targeting Iranian energy infrastructure by 10 days, reportedly at Iran’s request. However, Tehran has once again denied this, underscoring the fragile and uncertain nature of diplomacy between Washington and Tehran. 

At the same time, the Pentagon is reportedly considering sending an additional 10,000 troops to the Middle East, suggesting that risks of further escalation remain. 

This uncertainty is weighing on risk assets more broadly. European equities are down over 1%, while US futures point to a weaker open, with Nasdaq futures down 0.2% after falling 2.4% in the previous session. 

Markets typically struggle with uncertainty, and with conflicting headlines and limited signs of de-escalation, the duration of the conflict remains a key overhang. 

Elsewhere, around $14 billion of Bitcoin options are set to expire later today, which could lead to increased volatility as traders adjust positions, particularly in the current geopolitical backdrop. 

Institutional demand fades 

Institutional demand for Bitcoin has also weakened this week. BTC ETFs recorded $171.2 million in net outflows on Thursday, reversing earlier inflows and putting ETFs on track for weekly net outflows of $70.7 million — snapping a four-week streak of inflows. 

Sustained ETF inflows would likely be needed to support further upside in Bitcoin. 

Solana ETFs also saw a rare day of outflows, totalling around $1 million — only the 10th day of net outflows since launch in late 2025. Despite this, Solana ETFs remain on track for net inflows in March, marking a sixth consecutive month of demand. 

Solana – technical analysis 

Solana has recovered from its $67.50 low and continues to trade within a rising channel. However, the price recently faced resistance near $97 — a confluence of the upper channel boundary and a longer-term descending trendline from the September high. 

Following this rejection, the price is now testing support at the 50-day SMA near $85, along with the lower bound of the rising channel. 

If sellers gain momentum and break below this level, attention would turn to $81.50 (the March low), followed by $67.50 — the 2026 low. 

Should the support hold, buyers will need to rise above 97.50 to create a higher high and bring 117.50 into focus. 

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