4 min readThe March Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report was released, showing job gains of 178,000 in the U.S, well above the 60,000 forecast and well above the -133k jobs losses in February (downwardly revised from -92k). This marked the strongest job creation since the end of 2024 and suggests the US job market is stabilising.
The market expected a recovery in employment after strikes and harsh winter weather spurred an outsized decline in February.
The U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.3% from 4.4%. Expectations had been for unemployment to remain unchanged at 4.4%. Wage growth was weaker than forecasts on a monthly basis at 0.2% MoM and a yearly basis at 3.5%.
The solid jobs report reinforces the Federal Reserves focus on inflation risks amid the Iran war and the rapid increase in oil prices.
The markets were closed on Good Friday. However at the open on Monday, USD is falling and US futures are rising but this is more linked to developments surrounding the Middle East conflict.
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY):
The US markets were closed on Friday. However, on Monday, following the release of the NFP results last week and amid the latest Iran war developments, the Dollar Index is falling. The USD traded at 99.90 at the end of last week and trades at 99.70 on Monday. The price is testing the multi-month rising trendline of the 4-hour chart.
EURO VS DOLLAR (EUR/USD):
If we take a closer look at the technicals, we can observe how EUR/USD was trading at 1.1530 at the end of last week and trades at 1.1550 on Monday as the USD weakens. On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD still trades below its falling trendline resistance.
S&P 500 (SDX):
The S&P 500 traded at 6560 at the end of last week and the futures are rising to 6600 on Monday as the market sets to re-open after the log Easter weekend. Investors are weighing up the NFP results, but more so the latest Iran developments. The S&P 500 index is breaking out above its falling trendline resistance at 6600, bringing 6700 resistance into focus.
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