Oil pushes higher as tanker attack signals Middle East conflict could be far from over. These are the key levels to watch

Brent crude is pushing higher again as fresh attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz cast doubt over claims that the US-Iran war is nearing its end.

Over the past three days, President Trump has repeatedly signalled that the conflict is winding down, telling CBS News on Monday that it is “very complete, pretty much,” and reiterating to Axios yesterday that it would end “soon.” He has also encouraged oil companies to resume sending tankers through the Strait, suggesting the US Navy could escort them if necessary.

However, Iran’s actions on the ground tell a different story. On Tuesday, the Thailand-flagged bulk carrier Mayuree Naree was struck by two projectiles while transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed responsibility, stating the vessel had ignored warnings. Twenty crew members were rescued by the Omani navy, while three remain missing. This was one of three vessels attacked on the same day, bringing the total number of incidents in and around the Strait to 17 since the war began on 28 February.

With tanker traffic through the Strait still at a near standstill and Iran reportedly laying naval mines in the waterway, the supply disruption affecting roughly 20% of the world’s seaborne oil shows no sign of easing.

In our previous analysis on Brent crude, we highlighted the breakout above the multi-year downtrend. Price has since pulled back from a spike above $100 but continues to trade well above pre-war levels, with the conflict remaining the dominant driver.

1-hour chart

Brent crude 1-hour chart showing the gap-up breakout above previous range highs, with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and EMAs converging at the breakout zone.

On the 1-hour chart, Brent crude has gapped up above the previous range highs, breaking out of the consolidation zone that had contained price action over recent sessions. That breakout area now also has an unfilled gap sitting right on top of it, which could act as a magnet for a potential retest.

Adding to the significance of this zone:

• The 50% Fibonacci retracement of the breakout move aligns with the breakout level
• The 1-hour 20 and 50 EMAs are both converging in the same area

This confluence makes the breakout zone a key level to watch. If the market continues to price in further instability around the Middle East conflict, this could be a strong area for buyers to step in and defend.

Trade Now

Trading involves risk.