Bitcoin breaks out as ETF flows surge. These are the key levels to watch

Bitcoin has broken out of the range that has defined its price action for most of the year, hitting a high of around $78,000 last Friday before pulling back to retest the breakout area. The move has been supported by a surge in ETF inflows, with spot Bitcoin ETFs taking in close to $1bn last week, the strongest weekly total since January. In our previous analysis, we highlighted the ceasefire expiry as a key binary catalyst, and with the deadline now just one day away, Bitcoin is approaching a major inflection point.

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin has broken out of its range and is now retesting the $74K breakout area
• The daily RSI has reclaimed the bullish range for the first time since February
• Volume and the Accumulation/Distribution indicator are not confirming the move, suggesting limited bullish participation
• The $80K to $85K resistance zone, which aligns with the daily 200 SMA, is the next major inflection point for the broader trend

Daily chart analysis

Bitcoin has broken out of its range and is currently retesting the $74K breakout area as support, after hitting a high of around $78,000 last Friday. A handful of structural shifts have taken place on the daily chart in the process:

• The daily RSI has reclaimed the bullish range for the first time since Bitcoin entered this range back in February
• The 20 EMA has crossed above the 50 EMA, a bullish momentum signal on the daily
• The $74K breakout area is now being tested as support from above rather than capping price from below

That said, the underlying participation behind the move is worth flagging. Volume picked up initially when price first tested $74K as resistance last week, but it has been weakening throughout the rally, including on the breakout itself. The Accumulation/Distribution indicator is also failing to print any significant new highs, which suggests that bullish participation behind this move is less convincing than the price action alone would imply.

Above, the $80K to $85K resistance zone comes into focus, and this is where the daily 200 SMA is also sitting. As we will show on the weekly chart, this zone represents a major inflection point for Bitcoin and could be the level that decides whether the broader downtrend is truly over.

Weekly chart analysis

Zooming out to the weekly chart puts the recent breakout into the broader context. Despite the strong move higher over the past couple of weeks, the overall trend on the weekly timeframe is still pointing to the downside, with lower highs and lower lows defining the picture since the all-time high near $126K at the end of 2025.

What is encouraging for bulls is the rounding bottom pattern that has formed on the weekly, which often precedes a meaningful trend shift. However, a rounding bottom on its own is not enough to confirm a reversal. For Bitcoin to truly transition from the current downtrend back into a bull market on the weekly, price would need to reclaim the $80K to $85K resistance zone.

Until this zone is reclaimed on a weekly closing basis, the path of least resistance on the higher timeframe remains to the downside, even if the short-term momentum is clearly pointing higher.

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