8 min readAfter a strong start to the new year, Bitcoin reversed those gains in the second part of last week, leaving BTC unchanged for the week. The price began last week at approximately 90.5k, before rising to a high of 94.6k last Monday. However, this rally proved unsustainable, and the price fell back to 90.5k by the end of the week, where it has since consolidated.
Major altcoins had a mixed performance. Ethereum and Ripple declined by 0.7% and 0.8%, respectively, over the week. Meanwhile, SOL and BNB booked gains of 4% and 1% respectively. More extreme moves were seen in DOGE, which dropped 8%, and XMR, which rallied 21%.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalisation stands at $3.09 trillion at the time of writing, down from a peak of $3.22 trillion on 6 January, but approximately in line with last week’s level.
Sentiment analysis indicates that sentiment has improved slightly to 29, which is in Fear territory and approximately unchanged from this time last week.
Crypto liquidations remain subdued throughout the week, staying below $500 million liquidated per day.
BTC institutional demand stalls
Bitcoin price started last week higher, but then corrected midweek, consolidating back to the 90K support on Friday. Institutional flows supported the price action. According to SoSo value data, BTC ETFs recorded an inflow of $697.25 million on Monday, followed by four consecutive days of net outflows totaling $1.2 billion. This resulted in net outflows of $681.01 million during the first week of trading in 2026.
Despite soft market conditions, Morgan Stanley filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission to launch a spot crypto ETF tracking Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. The move follows Bank of America, the second-largest U.S. bank, beginning to allow advisors in its wealth management business to recommend exposure to Bitcoin ETFs.
Bitcoin ETF demand must increase persistently for the Bitcoin price to meaningfully rise toward 100K.
Macro backdrop
The data last week were mixed, with U.S. manufacturing PMIs and headline non-farm payrolls coming in weaker than expected. However, the ISM services PMI rose for the 10th consecutive month and to a 14-month high, while the unemployment rate fell more than expected to 4.4%. These data points indicate that the market is pricing in just a 5% probability of a January rate cut and that a Q1 rate cut is highly unlikely, which is bearish for BTC.
Sticking with the Federal Reserve, news that U.S. prosecutors have launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding a $2.5 billion renovation of the Fed’s headquarters has raised concerns about the Central Bank’s independence. The USD declined on Monday; gold and silver traded at fresh record highs, and BTC briefly rose above 91k.
Attention this week will be focused on geopolitical tensions and US CPI data. Higher-than-expected inflation could prompt the market to push back further on bets on Fed rate cuts, which may weigh on risk sentiment.
Geopolitical tensions will also be in focus. Bitcoin briefly rose following the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Maduro. However, BTC is often under pressure during periods of heightened geopolitical tension. The US has also begun floating the idea that Greenland and its resources may soon be considered fair game for strategic acquisition.
This comes at the same time that there are sharpening calls for regime change in Iran and China, actively testing the question of how to take Taiwan. Overall, these geopolitical questions make for a volatile market backdrop.
Despite this backdrop, on-chain data indicate a calmer trading environment. CryptoQuant’s Exchange Netflow, which tracks whether Bitcoin is moving into or out of exchanges, showed that Netflow at the Exchange didn’t change significantly despite the latest developments.
Bitcoin’s performance has been subdued recently, with price action stagnating. The Financial Conditions Index (FCI) serves as an economic indicator that reflects how traditional market conditions may influence risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Index averages normalised values of macroeconomic indicators to determine the broader market bias surrounding crypto. It assesses sentiment based on whether readings fall within positive or negative regions on the chart.
Historically positive FCI readings have been associated with tighter financial conditions and weaker Bitcoin performance. A positive reading indicates tightening liquidity and rising financial stress across financial markets. Meanwhile, negative readings tend to support bullish price action. At the time of writing, the FCI is in negative territory, hinting at some degree of financial easing; however, the reading is only very slightly negative. A deeper negative reading would imply more favourable conditions supporting a BTC price rise towards 100k.
While there is little bearish pressure from macroeconomic factors, investors still remain cautious about increasing exposure to Bitcoin. According to Coinglass data, the spot market recorded weekly net inflows of $282 million, the lowest in six weeks at the time of writing. This suggests that, while spot investors remain bullish, they are more conservative in their accumulation. A sustained decline in weekly inflows could mean investors are approaching exhaustion.
Market sentiment remains weak
Google search trends, which serve as a proxy for retail engagement, have dropped 39 one of the lowest levels recorded over the past year. This could indicate a decline in public attention to Bitcoin.
However, long-term holders have continued to be a stabilising force for the world’s largest cryptocurrency. The Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) indicator suggests that long-term holders are not moving significant positions in Bitcoin. Historically, rising CDD levels have indicated that long-term holders are selling, a precursor to increased volatility.
However, for now, inactivity is helping to keep Bitcoin’s price stable, well, preventing a deeper decline below the 90,000 level. This could suggest that pet grind may continue to grind sideways for now.
Does the chart point to a more positive eventual outcome?
A familiar consolidation structure?
When looking at the Bitcoin price action on the daily timeframe, the chart shows that the largest cryptocurrency could be tracing a pattern that looks similar to what played out between March and May 2025.
At that time, Bitcoin spent weeks trading between 76,000 and 86,000, repeatedly failing to break higher and giving the impression of stagnation. The price held above the support levels and continued to print lower lows within the range, suggesting a lack of immediate upside. On this occasion, the consolidation served as a base. Once Bitcoin broke above the upper bound of the 86K range, sentiment shifted quickly, creating conditions for a substantial upside that eventually led to Bitcoin’s record high.
The current market structure shows similar characteristics only at a higher base level. Bitcoin ranges between 84,000 and 94,000, with the price compressing in a pattern similar to that observed in early 2025.
94k is the key focus and the next priority for Bitcoin to secure a breakout. It’s worth noting that no two price movements unfold in precisely the same way, but the similarities between the two setups could suggest that Bitcoin is building energy below resistance.
Trading involves risk.
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