FOMC today with the S&P 500 at all-time highs and four Mag7 reporting after the close. These are the key levels to watch

The S&P 500 is heading into one of the most catalyst-dense sessions of 2026. The FOMC decision lands later today, with Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta all set to report after the US close. With the index sitting near all-time highs, the next 24 hours could shape the trajectory into May.

Key takeaways:

• The FOMC is widely expected to keep rates on hold, with the focus on Powell’s tone in what could be his final meeting as Fed Chair
• Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta all report earnings after the close, with Apple to follow on Thursday
• The S&P 500 has printed nine consecutive daily closes above its previous range high
• Daily structure remains bullish, with RSI in overbought territory but no clear bearish divergence yet
• The 4H 7,120 to 7,100 zone is the immediate pivot for short-term direction

The macro backdrop

Today’s FOMC decision is widely expected to deliver a hold at 3.50% to 3.75%, with markets pricing essentially zero chance of a move. Attention instead falls on Powell’s press conference and the updated economic outlook, with rate cut expectations across the rest of 2026 having pulled back meaningfully through April.

This could also be Powell’s final FOMC press conference as Fed Chair, with his term as Chair ending on 15 May. Kevin Warsh, the nominee to replace him, faces a Senate Banking Committee vote later today to advance his nomination, with full Senate confirmation expected before Powell’s term ends. That backdrop adds a layer of uncertainty around forward guidance, with markets weighing both the current Committee’s stance and the potential shift under new leadership.

After the close, four of the Magnificent Seven report earnings simultaneously: Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta, with Apple following on Thursday. Tech has been the engine of the rally back to all-time highs, so any disappointment could materially shift the index’s trajectory. The options market is pricing a wider implied move into the back half of the week than current conditions suggest.

Layered on top of the US calendar: the BoJ delivered a hawkish hold yesterday, with three of nine board members voting to hike to 1% in the most divided vote of Ueda’s tenure. The ECB decides tomorrow, and Q1 advanced GDP and core PCE both land Thursday. Iran-US negotiations remain stalled, with oil holding a bid.

Building on our previous S&P 500 piece, where we looked at whether the cool-off at the highs was a healthy pullback or an early warning, the index has since pushed back to fresh records and is now testing whether it can hold those gains through this week’s catalysts.

Daily chart

The S&P 500 has now printed nine consecutive daily candle closes above the 7,000 level, which previously acted as a key range high. The daily 20 EMA has caught up with that prior range high zone, providing additional confluence on any pullback.

A few notable signals worth flagging:

• Volume is now picking back up, after declining through the earlier leg of the move higher
• The Accumulation/Distribution indicator is breaking into new highs, which could point to sustained institutional buying behind the rally
• The RSI is in overbought territory

It’s worth noting that RSI can remain overbought for sustained periods in a strong bull trend. Without a clear local peak to anchor against, there isn’t yet a definitive bearish divergence to lean on.

If the FOMC or the Mag7 earnings act as a catalyst for a short-term rejection, that doesn’t necessarily indicate a change in the broader trend. A pullback into the 7,000 support zone, where the 20 EMA confluence sits, could simply reflect short to medium-term nervousness rather than a structural shift.

A loss of 7,000, putting price back into the prior range, could open the door for a move toward the 6,750 support zone, which would meaningfully change the bigger picture.

4-hour chart

On the 4-hour timeframe, the structure is reasonably clean. Price has broken and retested the area around 7,120, which could be argued as the range equilibrium (range EQ) of the local consolidation. This is also where the 4H 50 EMA sits, adding confluence.

The range EQ is simply the middle of the consolidation range and tends to act as a pivot between bullish and bearish short-term structure.

Price has now bounced off this zone and is printing a local rounded bottom. If this bounce is sustainable, the immediate direction could continue pointing higher.

Key 4H levels to watch:

• 7,120 to 7,100 as the immediate pivot. Holding this area could keep the short-term bullish structure intact
• A 4H close below 7,100 could be the first signal of local weakness, potentially opening the door for a retest of the 7,000 daily support zone
• A continuation higher could bring the recent range highs back into play

What to watch

• The FOMC decision and Powell’s press conference. Any shift in tone around the path for the rest of 2026 could move the dollar, yields and equities materially
• Mag7 earnings after the close. A combined beat from Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta could extend the rally, while disappointment could provide the rejection catalyst the daily chart leaves open
• The 7,120 to 7,100 zone on the 4H. The short-term pivot for whether the local bullish structure continues
• The 7,000 level on the daily. The most important support zone into the back half of the week
• The ECB decision tomorrow, plus Q1 GDP and core PCE on Thursday, all of which could shift rate expectations and the dollar

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