5 min read Gold has hit resistance at the range equilibrium near $4,750 after a strong recovery off the early-May lows. With US April CPI due at 12:30 UTC, today’s print could be the catalyst that decides whether the next leg is higher or lower.
Key takeaways
- Gold is stalling at the $4,750 resistance, the daily range equilibrium and 50 EMA confluence
- US April CPI hits at 12:30 UTC. Consensus is 0.6% MoM headline and 0.3% MoM core, with 3.7% YoY headline and 2.7% YoY core
- The key tell is whether elevated energy prices are bleeding into core
- A softer print could help gold reclaim $4,750 and open the door to the range high near $4,850
- A hotter print could reinforce the hawkish-Fed narrative that has weighed on gold throughout the conflict
- Rate cut expectations are near zero. CME pricing has roughly 96% on a hold for June
Why CPI matters so much for gold
In our last gold article, we framed the macro chain that has shaped gold since the Iran conflict began:
- War escalation → oil surges → inflation fears rise
- Inflation fears → hawkish Fed → yields and dollar strengthen
- Stronger dollar and higher yields → pressure on gold as a non-yielding asset
That chain has dragged gold down roughly 10 to 12% since the conflict began in late February, even as a “crisis hedge” typically rallies during geopolitical shocks. Today’s CPI is the cleanest test yet of whether that chain stays intact or starts to break.
What’s driving the setup
- Hormuz remains effectively closed. Trump rejected Iran’s latest response to the US peace proposal as “totally unacceptable” over the weekend, keeping energy prices elevated
- Bessent meets China’s He Lifeng in Seoul on Wednesday 13 May to narrow the agenda ahead of the leaders’ meeting
- Trump-Xi summit on 14-15 May is the implicit deadline markets are watching for an Iran resolution
- NFP came in hot last Friday at around 115K versus consensus around 62K, all but ending near-term cut expectations
- WGC reported record Q1 demand of around $193bn, showing institutional appetite remains strong despite the price drawdown
Daily chart
Gold has hit resistance at the range equilibrium near $4,750, an area that lines up with the daily 50 EMA (blue line). The daily RSI has reclaimed the 50 level, a sign of strengthening momentum, but the Accumulation/Distribution indicator is not yet showing signs of a breakout.
- Above $4,750 could open the door to the range high near $4,850
- Below current levels, the next clear support is the range low area between $4,600 and $4,650
4-hour chart
On the 4-hour timeframe, gold retested the range EQ area yesterday and reclaimed both the 20 EMA (white) and 50 EMA (blue). Price is now struggling to break above the $4,750 resistance.
- A CPI-driven break above could potentially take gold into the $4,850 range high area
- A break down could potentially send price back to the range low support around $4,650
- A break below the range low could potentially initiate a longer-term retrace
What to watch
- US April CPI at 12:30 UTC, the biggest catalyst of the week
- $4,750 as the immediate resistance and decision point
- $4,850 as the range high above
- $4,600 to $4,650 as the range low support below
- Bessent-He Lifeng meeting on Wednesday 13 May for any breakthrough signals on Iran
- Trump-Xi summit on 14-15 May as the implicit deadline for resolution
- Any further developments in the Strait of Hormuz
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