12 min read Bitcoin is forming a bull flag on the daily chart, still slowly completing a classic corrective structure seen in previous cycles. Even though the uptrend seems persistent, the digital gold remains under the 200-EMA, the most important factor in long-term trend structure.
A breakout of a daily candle and it’s closure above the EMA (on weekday, because there the market is too thin on weekends) with volume would change the mid-term outlook on BTC open the path toward $86K (0.702 fib) and $97.8K. A breakdown below $75.8K (20-day EMA) would confirm the flag and re-expose the $72K support.
While Bitcoin recorded gains, the broader market painted a split picture. Ethereum rose just 0.3%, underperforming. XRP, SOL and BCH traded sideways. The week’s defining story was Toncoin (TON), which surged over 79% in 7 days to become the biggest gainer in the top 20. The catalyst was structural, not speculative: on May 5, Telegram founder Pavel Durov announced that Telegram would replace the TON Foundation as the network’s largest validator, directly fusing the blockchain with Telegram’s 950 million active users.
Durov also revealed phase two of the “Make TON Great Again” (MTONGA) roadmap, including a sixfold reduction in transaction fees to just $0.0005 per transaction — practically free. TON processed nearly 67 million transactions in April 2026, its best month of the year. Trading volume crossed $4.15 billion, an all-time high for the asset. Staking yields are sitting above 20% APR, drawing significant capital into the network. RSI climbed above 93, signalling overbought conditions.
Source: https://quantifycrypto.com/heatmaps
The sentiment is recovering
Last week the index sat at 69 (Greed), the first time it touched that level since October 2025. This week it has pulled back sharply to 49 (Fear), with yesterday’s reading at 48. The chart shows price (blue line) has recovered from the $63K Extreme Fear low in early April toward the $80K zone — but sentiment has not kept pace with the price move, suggesting weak conviction behind the bounce.
This divergence is a meaningful signal. When price rises but Fear & Greed deteriorates, it typically means the rally is being sold into by those who accumulated lower. The chart confirms the cycle: the index bottomed at 14 (Extreme Fear) at $63,380 and peaked at 59 (Greed) at $124,680 — the ATH. The current 49 reading at $80K puts sentiment roughly halfway between those extremes, consistent with a distribution phase rather than the start of a new leg up.
Source: https://coinstats.app/fear-and-greed/
Macro backdrop: dollar weakness and bond market stress
The macro picture this week was dominated by two opposite forces pulling at Bitcoin simultaneously. On the bearish side, the 30-year US Treasury yield briefly hit 5% on April 30, its highest since July 2025, as hawkish dissent within the Fed pushed long-term inflation expectations higher. ING analysts described the three-official dissent at the April meeting as “a warning shot” aimed at incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. A 5% risk-free yield is a direct competitor to Bitcoin: it makes sitting in cash genuinely attractive and reduces the opportunity cost of not being in risk assets.
On the bullish side, the US Dollar Index (DXY) continued its slide toward 97.60, a multi-week low, despite the strong NFP print of 115K. The dollar’s failure to rally on good jobs data exposed the structural driver: Iran ceasefire hopes are stripping the geopolitical safe-haven premium from the dollar faster than labour market strength can rebuild it. Bitcoin’s 12-year inverse relationship with the DXY is showing early signs of breaking down. BTC held above $68K in February even as the DXY climbed to 99.4, a decoupling driven by $90B in ETF assets that have turned BTC into a portfolio allocation rather than a pure speculative trade.
The Warsh transition on May 15 adds a third layer of uncertainty. Warsh opposed QE2, argued pandemic-era money printing directly caused the 2021-22 inflation spike, and is likely to pursue a smaller Fed balance sheet. Markets must now price two scenarios: rate cuts, which are bullish for BTC via dollar weakness, against balance sheet reduction, which is bearish via liquidity drain. His first signals at the June 16-17 FOMC, where updated dot plots will be released, will determine which scenario dominates for the rest of 2026.
S&P500, NASDAQ and lagging crypto market
The Nasdaq has now gained 28.62% in 33 sessions from its March 30 low, almost identical in structure to the 29.15% run seen over 27 bars in late 2025. That prior move was powered by the first wave of AI infrastructure earnings, led by Nvidia, Microsoft and AMD beating estimates by wide margins.
The current rally has the same driver: more than 83% of S&P 500 companies reporting Q1 2026 results beat analyst estimates, with AI capex spending from hyperscalers projected at $650 billion for the year. Retail demand has also returned to a two-year high, adding momentum to the move. RSI is now at 76, firmly in overbought territory.
Historically, when Nasdaq completes a recovery of this magnitude, momentum tends to persist. During the comparable 2025 run, the index stayed above its 50-day EMA for over 180 days before any meaningful pullback. If that pattern holds, equities could continue grinding higher through Q3, which would gradually improve the macro backdrop for risk assets including Bitcoin.
The problem is that Bitcoin is not participating. The BTC-Nasdaq 30-day correlation has dropped from 92% to 69%, meaning money flowing into tech is not flowing into crypto. The primary reason is concentration: the rally is clustered around AI infrastructure names, and portfolio managers rotating into Nvidia or Micron are not reallocating into Bitcoin simultaneously. Until BTC breaks $80K on volume and recaptures its role as a risk-on proxy, the Nasdaq’s strength is a background positive, not a direct catalyst.
NFP release and the dollar’s paradox
The US April jobs report released on May 8 showed 115,000 new non-farm payrolls added, well above the consensus forecast of 62,000. Unemployment held steady at 4.3%. Despite the strong beat, the dollar continued to fall and Bitcoin rose 1.51% over the following two days. The dollar has a direct impact on Bitcoin as a risk asset: a weaker dollar typically supports BTC prices as capital rotates away from cash.
So why did a strong NFP fail to lift the dollar? Three reasons:
- Iran outweighs NFP. The DXY had been falling all week as Iran ceasefire expectations built. Falling oil on peace hopes reduces inflation risk and removes the safe-haven premium from the dollar. That is a structural narrative, and it outweighs a single data point.
- NFP did not change the rate path. Even with a strong print, aggressive hawkish repricing was never on the table. Markets had already priced in a long Fed pause. A good NFP simply meant “all on track” — not a surprise, not a trigger to buy dollars.
- The bar for a real surprise was already high. Several leading labour market indicators had pointed toward an upside beat going into the release. If the market expected a beat and got one, there is nothing left to trade.
Bottom line: strong NFP confirms the Fed holds rates, which was already priced in. The Iran deal progress sends oil lower, inflation expectations lower, and removes the need for a safe-haven dollar. That is the new signal, and it is what moves markets right now. The primary driver of DXY this week is geopolitics, not employment.
Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls
Net realised profits lead to profit-fixing
The Santiment chart shows net realized Bitcoin profit/loss over a 2-hour interval across April 3 to May 4, 2026. The key signal: on Sunday May 3, net realized profits spiked to +$207.56M — the largest single-day profit-taking event in the past month. Price at the time was near $79K, just below the $80K resistance.
The pattern is consistent with distribution behaviour near resistance: holders who accumulated during the February-March lows are locking in gains as BTC approaches the $80K ceiling. This is not a catastrophic signal, realized profits at this scale are normal in a recovery — but it explains why $80K has held as a ceiling. Until this selling pressure absorbs, a clean breakout requires meaningful new spot demand to step in.
MicroStrategy lost their diamond hands?
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has stated it would sell BTC only under specific conditions — tax optimisation and financing dividends on preferred shares being the named examples. Despite this, Polymarket currently prices an 87% probability of Strategy selling at least some Bitcoin before December 31, 2026, up sharply from under 20% as recently as March.
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/microstrategy-sell-any-bitcoin-in-2025
The shift in prediction market sentiment reflects growing concern that Strategy’s leveraged BTC accumulation model faces pressure as interest costs on its preferred shares rise. A forced sale from the world’s largest corporate BTC holder (currently sitting on approximately 568,000 BTC) would be a significant bearish event, not because of volume, but because of the narrative damage to institutional holding as a strategy.
Demand Structure: Futures Leading, Spot Lagging
For the first time this spring, the number of active Bitcoin addresses has exceeded 700,000, approaching the February 2026 peak of 750,000. This is a positive directional signal, rising active addresses typically precede renewed price momentum as more participants engage on-chain.
Yet, the context matters. The 12-month peak occurred in August 2025 when active addresses briefly touched 944,000, coinciding with BTC near $95K-$109K at the height of the bull market. The current 700K reading is a recovery from middle-east conflict lows, not a return to cycle-peak activity. Until addresses clear 750K and spot demand turns positive, the on-chain picture supports cautious optimism rather than conviction.
Bitcoin miners feel good despite the price
The miner revenue chart from The Block shows total daily revenue split between block subsidy (blue) and transaction fees (orange). The pattern is clear: the fee spikes of 2023-24 driven by Ordinals and Runes have fully normalised. Transaction fees currently contribute roughly $300K per day (less than 1% of total miner income), down from 7% in 2024. Block subsidies at 3.125 BTC per block generate approximately $45M daily at current prices.
Source: https://www.theblock.co/data/on-chain-metrics/bitcoin/bitcoin-miner-revenue-daily
As of May 3, hashprice stands at $37.52 per PH/s/day, up 13.65% from late April. The recovery is driven by price stabilisation and a favourable difficulty adjustment.
Conclusion
Bitcoin remains in a bearish correction by structure. The technical picture points to a local uptrend in its final phase. Large market participants are taking profits near $80K, and Polymarket’s prediction of MicroStrategy selling adds headline risk. TON’s 79% weekly surge is a reminder that capital is rotating within crypto rather than entering fresh, which is typical of a market consolidating rather than trending.
However, the macro picture is shifting directionally. The ceasefire is holding, Project Freedom is paused, and Brent is pulling back. If oil moves toward $85 and Warsh signals patience at his first FOMC, the two main macro ceiling factors for Bitcoin weaken simultaneously.
In markets like this, the edge goes not to whoever predicts best, but to whoever manages risk best.
Trading involves risk.
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