8 min readKey takeaways
- Bitcoin is testing the $79K resistance zone after a strong rally from the late-March lows around $66K.
- The week ahead features the FOMC decision, earnings from five of the Magnificent Seven including Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Apple, the ECB rate decision, and Q1 GDP and March PCE data.
- The daily chart is showing bearish RSI divergence and thin volume, suggesting the move higher could need a fresh catalyst to break through resistance.
- Macro analysts are sharply divided on the path ahead, with one camp warning of a fading liquidity backdrop and another seeing liquidity trending higher and positioned accordingly.
The biggest macro week of the year
This week brings four of the year’s most important catalysts in the space of three days.
The FOMC decision on Wednesday could be Jerome Powell’s final meeting as Fed Chair. Powell’s term expires on 15 May, and Trump’s nominee Kevin Warsh moved a step closer to confirmation last week after the Department of Justice dropped its investigation into Powell, removing a key obstacle that had been holding up his Senate vote. Markets are pricing a Fed hold with very high confidence, but the press conference and any signal on the path ahead could move risk assets sharply.
Five of the Magnificent Seven are scheduled to report on Wednesday and Thursday, with Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon on Wednesday and Apple on Thursday. AI-linked stocks now account for roughly 45% of the S&P 500 by weight, according to Goldman Sachs analysis, and Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq has been elevated in recent months. The tech reaction could spill directly into crypto.
The ECB rate decision lands on Thursday, alongside US Q1 GDP and March PCE inflation data. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is currently tracking Q1 growth at just 1.2%, well below consensus, which could shift the rate path narrative if confirmed.
Why Bitcoin is lagging stocks
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are pressing fresh all-time highs, yet Bitcoin remains around 37% below its $126K peak from October 2025. The divergence is real, and there is an interesting tension within the analytical community on what comes next.
On one side, analysts like Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital argue that the recent rally is a temporary move driven by US Federal Reserve liquidity injections that may already be fading. From this perspective, global liquidity has been losing momentum since late 2025, and Bitcoin’s Q1 2026 weakness could be the lagged consequence of that slowdown. The implication is that until liquidity meaningfully turns higher, the upside for crypto could be capped.
On the other side, 42 Macro’s Darius Dale sees the opposite. His firm reads the Fed’s recent reserve management purchases as a potential shift toward expansionary balance sheet policy, with global liquidity trending higher across major economies. From this perspective, the current backdrop is a reflation regime supported by productivity gains from AI adoption and a pro-growth policy mix, and risk assets including Bitcoin could be well placed to benefit.
A few additional data points worth noting:
- Bitcoin ETF inflows have surpassed gold through April. Strategy bought 34,164 BTC in the week ending 19 April, its third-largest single purchase on record, and spot Bitcoin ETFs have continued to take in steady flows.
- Funding rates in the Bitcoin perpetual futures market have turned negative despite the recent rise in price. This could indicate stretched bearish positioning and, if resistance breaks, the crowded short side may add fuel to the upside.
- S&P 500 price breadth has dropped to one of the narrowest levels since the dot-com bubble, with eight of eleven sectors seeing negative EPS revisions since the Iran conflict began. The rally to record highs is being carried by a handful of AI-related names rather than a broad cyclical move.
The honest takeaway is that this is a real disagreement among smart people, and the resolution could come from how the FOMC and the Magnificent Seven earnings shape liquidity and risk appetite over the coming sessions.
Daily chart analysis
The daily chart shows an impressive move to the upside, with a local uptrend that started after the bounce at the $66K level on 29 March. Price is now testing the $79K resistance region, which sits just below the major $80K to $85K resistance zone.
The technicals here are cautious:
- The Accumulation/Distribution indicator has not broken out, suggesting the move higher has yet to be confirmed by sustained institutional buying
- Volume remains relatively thin
- Bearish RSI divergence is forming, with price making higher highs while the RSI makes lower highs, right at the 0.5 fib level coming into resistance
For price to push meaningfully higher, the market could need an additional catalyst. The upcoming FOMC decision and the Magnificent Seven earnings could provide one if the tone is risk-on. A failure to break above this zone could see price retest the $70K support area, with the late-March lows around $66K the next level of interest below that.
What to watch
- The $79K resistance zone as the immediate level. A clean reclaim could open the door to a test of the $80K to $85K high time frame resistance, which some analysts have identified as a zone that could potentially separate continued bear market structure from a return to a bull market
- The $70K support level on the downside. A loss of this area could shift the technical picture and bring the late-March lows back into play
- The FOMC decision and Powell’s press conference on Wednesday. Any shift in the rate path or signal on the balance sheet could move risk assets sharply
- Magnificent Seven earnings on Wednesday and Thursday. With AI-linked names making up such a large share of the S&P 500, the tech reaction could spill into crypto directly
- Bitcoin perpetual funding rates and ETF flows, both of which have been pointing to a strong institutional bid even as price stalls below resistance
For our previous analysis on Bitcoin, see Bitcoin breaks out as ETF flows surge. These are the key levels to watch.
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