5 min read Bitcoin fell to a four-month low on Friday and is on track for a steep weekly decline amid ongoing institutional selling, persistent concerns over the war in Iran, and a rotation into equities. Attention is now turning to the non-farm payroll report later today, which could act as a catalyst for further downside.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency briefly fell to 61k on Friday, its lowest level since early February, and is on track to lose 15% this week. Major altcoins are also under pressure, with Ethereum trading 5% lower over the past 24 hours and down 17% across the week, dropping to a 2026 low. Solana is faring even worse, trading almost 20% lower this week and falling to a two-and-a-half-year low.
Institutional demand sours
Bitcoin ETFs are on track to record a fourth straight week of net outflows. Withdrawals have totalled around $1.4 billion so far this week, marking a weak start to June after BTC ETFs recorded $2.43 billion in net outflows in May, one of the worst months since spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024.
The collapse in institutional demand has come as U.S. equities continue to trade around record highs, suggesting investors are rotating capital away from crypto and into traditional equity markets. However, it is worth noting that while the Dow Jones reached a record high yesterday, the Nasdaq fell 1%, and futures are pointing lower as the tech-heavy index pulls back from record levels reached earlier this week. This does not appear to be the start of a broader market sell-off, but rather a correction after an extended rally in AI and semiconductor stocks.
What to expect from the US NFP report?
Attention is now firmly on today’s non-farm payroll report. Expectations are for 85k jobs to have been added in May, down from 115k in April. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%, while average hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.3% month-on-month, up from 0.2%.
The data come as markets are pricing in a 47% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at least once before the end of the year. A strong jobs report, combined with still-elevated inflation, could reinforce expectations that the Fed will keep policy tighter for longer, creating a less supportive backdrop for Bitcoin and other risk assets.
While a weaker-than-expected payroll reading may provide some short-term relief for Bitcoin, it may not be enough on its own to reverse the current downtrend given the combination of ETF outflows, deteriorating sentiment and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty weighing on the market.
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