BTC rises as Clarity Act progress offsets rate concerns

Bitcoin is edging higher on Friday after progress on key US cryptocurrency legislation boosted sentiment. However, broader macro uncertainty surrounding US-China relations and the Iran conflict is limiting upside momentum. 

The world’s largest cryptocurrency is trading around 1.2% higher over the past 24 hours and remains on track for a weekly gain of roughly 1.5%. 

Broader crypto markets are also firmer, with BNB and XRP both rising more than 2%, while Ethereum is broadly unchanged. 

Senate advances Clarity Act. 

Sentiment across the crypto market improved after the US Senate Banking Committee voted 15-9 to advance the proposed Clarity Act, moving the legislation one step closer towards a full Senate vote. 

The bill aims to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for the US digital asset industry — something long sought by the industry and institutional investors. 

However, the legislation is still expected to face resistance, particularly from parts of the banking sector that continue to push for tighter restrictions on stablecoin yield products. Banks argue that some stablecoin offerings increasingly resemble traditional savings products and could create competitive and regulatory risks for the financial system. 

The Clarity Act will next move to the Senate Agriculture Committee before potentially progressing to a full Senate vote. 

If passed, the Clarity Act could boost Bitcoin by reducing regulatory uncertainty, encouraging greater institutional adoption, and strengthening confidence in crypto as a mainstream asset class. 

China, Iran, and rising yields limit upside. 

Despite the regulatory tailwind, broader market sentiment remains cautious, as seen in US futures, which are falling sharply. 

Investors continue to monitor developments from the summit between President Trump and Xi Jinping after a US trade official said that semiconductor export controls were not discussed during the meetings. The comments triggered a selloff in chip stocks, which had rallied strongly earlier in the week on hopes that trade restrictions around AI technology exports could ease. Nasdaq futures are falling 1.1%, although the uptrend remains intact. 

Markets were also unsettled after Trump warned he was “losing patience” with Iran and urged Tehran to accept a deal or face further military action. The comments pushed oil prices sharply higher and renewed concerns over the inflationary fallout from the ongoing Middle East conflict. 

Those inflation worries have intensified after a series of stronger-than-expected US economic releases this week. Both CPI and PPI inflation data surprised to the upside, reinforcing expectations that price pressures remain persistent. 

Data released on Thursday also showed US retail sales rose 0.5% month-on-month in April, matching forecasts, while jobless claims remained subdued — further supporting the view that the US economy and labour market remain resilient despite tighter financial conditions. 

As a result, Treasury yields have continued to rise, with markets now pricing roughly a 40% probability that the Federal Reserve could raise rates by 25 basis points before year-end. 

Higher yields and tighter liquidity conditions are typically less supportive for crypto assets, helping explain why Bitcoin’s gains remain relatively contained despite improving regulatory momentum. 

Looking ahead 

The US economic calendar is quiet today and across the early part of next week. Attention will remain on any updates on the US-China summit and developments surrounding Iran. Worries about an escalation in tensions could send oil prices and treasury yields higher and weigh on risk assets such as BTC and stock indices.  

Technically, the 200-day moving average is a key resistance level that BTC has struggled to break above. Buyers must push above this dynamic resistance to extend the bullish run dating back to early February. 

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