EUR/USD is consolidating at high timeframe support ahead of Friday’s NFP. These are the key levels to watch

EUR/USD is consolidating around the 1.17 area, sitting on the high timeframe range equilibrium that has defined price action since June of last year. The next major catalyst is Friday’s US Non-Farm Payrolls release.

The macro backdrop is layered. The US-Iran ceasefire was tested on Monday after both sides exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz, with the UAE reporting an Iranian drone strike on its Fujairah refinery. On Tuesday, Trump paused Operation Project Freedom, the Navy mission to escort stranded vessels through the strait, while keeping the US naval blockade of Iranian ports in place. Brent spiked above $114 before pulling back, and the DXY rebounded toward 98.5 on the safe-haven bid. In our last EUR/USD article, the central bank divergence was just starting to flip in the euro’s favour, and three weeks on, that thesis has accelerated.

Key takeaways

• EUR/USD is consolidating at the 1.17 high timeframe range equilibrium, the pivot that has defined price action since June 2025
• Friday’s NFP is the next major catalyst. Consensus estimates range from around 49K to 73K jobs added in April with unemployment at 4.3%
• The ECB held on 30 April at 2.00%, with Lagarde saying the bank is “certainly moving away” from its baseline. Markets are pricing 50 to 75bp of hikes by year-end, with a June hike close to 80% priced
• The Fed delivered a hawkish hold on 29 April with four dissents, the largest count since 1992. Markets now expect rates unchanged through the rest of 2026
• Eurozone inflation rose to 3% in April, the highest since September 2023
• The Iran-US ceasefire remains intact but fragile

Daily chart

EUR/USD has been trading within a defined high timeframe range since June 2025, and is now consolidating around the range equilibrium at 1.17. The RSI is sitting around 50, the dividing line between bullish and bearish momentum. Under Cardwell’s framework, RSI tends to oscillate between 40 and 80 in a bullish range and 20 and 60 in a bearish range. EUR/USD has held above 40 on every pullback, which keeps the bullish range condition intact.

Key daily levels:

• Immediate resistance: 1.181
• Range EQ: 1.17
• Immediate support: 1.16
• HTF resistance zone: 1.185 to 1.195
• HTF support zone: around 1.15

A clean break above 1.181 could open the path toward 1.185 to 1.195. A loss of 1.16 could put 1.15 back in play.

1-hour chart

EUR/USD has just tested the range high resistance at 1.175 and is pulling back. The RSI has tagged overbought and is rolling over, which could potentially warrant a short-term pullback.

Key intraday levels:

• Range high resistance: 1.175
• Immediate support: 1.17210, in confluence with the 0.618 to 0.786 retracement zone as a potential long reload area
• Range EQ support: 1.17100
• Range low support: 1.16800

If 1.17210 holds, EUR/USD could potentially push back to retest 1.175. If it breaks, the 1.17100 EQ comes into play, with 1.16800 as the next support.

What to watch

• 1.17210 as the immediate intraday support and long reload zone
• 1.181 as the daily resistance trigger for a move toward 1.185 to 1.195
• 1.16 as the daily support trigger for a move toward 1.15
• NFP on Friday 8 May as the cleanest dollar catalyst
• ADP today and jobless claims Thursday as the lead indicators
• The Strait of Hormuz situation as the dominant immediate macro risk

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