NFP preview: what today’s jobs report could mean for the markets

US markets go into today’s jobs report on shaky ground. On Thursday, stocks had their worst day since April 2025, and the selling spread to Asia and crypto overnight.

• The Nasdaq fell 5.5% and the S&P 500 lost 4.4%, led by chip and AI stocks.
• Japan’s Nikkei closed 6% lower and is now in a bear market. Bitcoin (BTC) is down about 6% near $75,600.
• Economists expect the US added about 65,000 jobs in October, with unemployment at 4.2%.
• With markets this fragile, a surprise in either direction could add to the volatility.

What happened on Thursday

The selloff started in AI and chip stocks. Investors are worried that the Democrats’ sweeping midterm wins could slow the building of new data centres in the US. Qualcomm’s revenue miss and weak outlook on Wednesday evening, and a cautious outlook from Arm, added to the pressure.

By the close, the damage was wide:

• Nasdaq Composite: down 5.5%, now in a correction, which means more than 10% below its recent high
• S&P 500: down 4.4%, with all 11 sectors lower
• Dow Jones: down 3.4%
• Philadelphia Semiconductor Index: down about 12%, its second biggest one day fall on record

The VIX, which measures how much volatility traders expect in US stocks, had its biggest one day jump since the April 2025 tariff shock.

Chart 1: Almost everything fell on Thursday. Gold was one of the few assets to rise, as money moved out of risk.

The selling went global

When Asia opened on Friday, the pressure carried on. South Korea’s Kospi fell more than 8% early in the session, which stopped trading for 20 minutes. It closed 6% lower. Japan’s Nikkei also closed 6% down and is now more than 20% below its June peak. That is the usual definition of a bear market.

Crypto followed. Bitcoin gave back its post election bounce above $80,000, and more than $1 billion in leveraged crypto positions were closed out in 24 hours.

At the same time, traders moved into safer assets. Gold rose on Thursday and short term US bond yields fell sharply.

What this means for the Fed

The Federal Reserve (Fed), the US central bank, raised rates in September and held them in October. Two officials voted for another rise.

After Thursday’s selloff, rate markets stopped fully pricing a December hike and now see March as the first fully priced move, according to Reuters. CME FedWatch puts the chance of a December hike at 66.7%.

What’s expected from the jobs report

The October nonfarm payrolls report (NFP) comes out at 13:30 UTC today. It counts how many jobs the US economy added last month, outside farming.

According to a Reuters poll of economists:

• Payrolls: about 65,000, after 29,000 in September.
• Unemployment rate: expected to stay at 4.2%
• Average hourly earnings: +0.3% on the month and 2.9% on the year. That would be the first time yearly wage growth has dropped below 3% in about five and a half years.

September’s number was held back by the timing of the Labor Day holiday. Economists now think the US needs only about 40,000 jobs a month to keep up with its working population. Private sector data from ADP this week showed 86,000 jobs in October, above the 69,000 expected.

Chart 2: Hiring has swung from a loss in July to a strong August and a weak September. The forecast for October sits above the 40,000 level economists see as the minimum the economy needs.

Why this report is harder to read than usual

On a normal NFP day, the logic is simple. Strong jobs can lift rate hike bets and the US dollar, while weak jobs do the opposite. This time, both outcomes carry risk for stocks:

• A strong number could bring December hike bets back, just as stocks are trying to find a floor.
• A weak number could ease rate fears, but it could also add worries about growth to the worries about AI.

That’s why many analysts see a number close to the forecast as the calmest outcome for risk assets.

Three ways today could play out

• Stronger than expected (above about 100,000, unemployment at 4.1% or lower): the dollar could firm and December hike bets could rise. Gold may come under pressure, and stocks and Bitcoin could struggle to recover.
• Close to forecast (around 50,000 to 80,000, wages near 2.9%): this could give markets some breathing room. Softer wage growth may support the view that jobs aren’t pushing inflation higher.
• Weaker than expected (below about 35,000, unemployment at 4.3% or higher): the dollar could weaken and gold may find more support. Stocks could still fall if traders read it as a sign the economy is slowing.

Wages and changes to earlier months’ figures could matter as much as the headline number.

Nasdaq 100: key levels to watch

Thursday’s drop pushed the Nasdaq 100 below its late July low, which creates a lower low on the daily chart. Price is trading around 26,830, below both moving averages.

The fall came close to the 0.618 Fibonacci level near 26,000. Fibonacci levels show how much of an earlier rally price has given back, here measured from the April low to the October high. The 26,000 area also lines up with the late 2025 highs, and price hasn’t traded there since April.

• Bullish scenario: a move back above the 0.5 Fibonacci level around 27,050 could open the way toward the 28,800 to 29,100 zone.
• Bearish scenario: a break below the 26,000 area could open the way toward the 0.702 level near 25,300, and then the 0.786 level near 24,600.

Chart 3: The Nasdaq 100 has broken below its late July low and is now between the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci levels.

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