6 min read Bitcoin pushed above $80,000 for the first time in roughly three months in early Singapore hours yesterday, then pulled back through the New York session as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz brought the US-Iran ceasefire under serious strain. By this morning, BTC was retesting $80,000 again.
The 24-hour round trip is the story. The most significant geopolitical escalation in roughly four weeks landed mid-session, and BTC took a glancing blow before recovering.
What happened
US and Iranian forces traded fire in the Strait of Hormuz yesterday in the most serious escalation since the ceasefire was agreed roughly four weeks ago. The reaction across the rest of the market was textbook risk-off:
- Brent jumped back above $110
- 30-year Treasury yield climbed to around 5%, its highest level since mid-2025
- The dollar was the strongest major across the board
- Gold sold off by around 2% and is now down roughly 13% since the war began
- Equities pulled back from record highs
Bitcoin initially traded with that move, dipping into the New York session. The bid returned overnight, and BTC is now sitting near $80,000 again. Up roughly 20% since the war began at the end of February.
The context behind the bid
A few data points worth flagging:
- April spot Bitcoin ETF inflows were the strongest monthly total of the year, at around $2bn
- A single-day inflow of roughly $630m on Friday was the largest in two weeks
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs have now logged five consecutive weeks of net inflows
- Whales accumulated around 270,000 BTC in April, per on-chain data
- Exchange reserves are sitting near 7-year lows
- BTC has reclaimed its bull market support band for the first time in roughly six months
This is also the third attempt at $80,000 in 2026. The previous two were rejected, so the level is still a meaningful test rather than confirmed support.
Today’s catalysts
Strategy Q1 earnings tonight is the live one. It is the first report since the war started, and Saylor paused the company’s weekly buying streak ahead of it. The average cost basis on the holdings sits near $75,500, so the position is back in the money. The market wants to see whether the buying restarts after the report.
Consensus 2026 also opens in Miami today, with stablecoin legislation and the CLARITY Act on the agenda.
Daily chart
Bitcoin has pushed back above $80,000 and is now approaching the $81,000 resistance area on the daily timeframe. Price is now well inside the $80,000 to $85,000 zone that has been the major higher-timeframe resistance for some time. A reclaim of this zone could potentially be a significant step towards a confirmed higher-timeframe bull market.
Two cautionary signals worth flagging:
- Yesterday’s daily candle did print a volume spike, but volume on the broader move higher remains relatively low
- The Accumulation/Distribution indicator has not yet broken out of its recent range, which could suggest the move is not yet being confirmed by sustained underlying buying
Above current price, the next major level remains the $85,000 resistance. On the downside, the key levels to watch are the $70,000 support and, below that, the $60,000 support.
1-hour chart
Zooming in to the 1-hour timeframe, the level marked in yesterday’s analysis was briefly overshot during the whipsaw volatility around the ceasefire escalation, but the market held the zone overall. Price has now pushed higher and could potentially be confirming a local uptrend on the lower timeframes.
The level to watch now for a potential retest as support is around $80,400. Holding this level on a pullback could potentially keep the short-term bullish structure intact and open the door to a continued push into the $80,000 to $85,000 higher-timeframe resistance zone. A loss of this level could put the recent range back in play.
What to watch
- $80,400 as the immediate intraday support. Holding this level on a retest could potentially keep the local uptrend intact
- $81,000 and the wider $80,000 to $85,000 zone as the major higher-timeframe resistance to clear for a potentially confirmed bull market structure
- Volume and the Accumulation/Distribution indicator for any signs the move could be confirmed by underlying buying
- Strategy earnings tonight for any signal on whether the corporate buying could resume
- Brent and US yields, given how closely they have moved against BTC throughout the war
- Headlines from Hormuz for any sign that the re-escalation could deepen or ease from here
Trading involves risk.
Author
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