5 min readGold prices are holding steady below 4,800 after two consecutive days of losses but remain on track for a fourth straight weekly gain.
The recovery in the precious metal from the 4,100 March low comes alongside US dollar weakness and record highs in US equity markets. The dollar has declined in nine of the past ten sessions, providing support for USD-denominated gold.
Earlier in March, as US–Iran war fears intensified, gold traded more like a risk asset, falling around 13% across last month as oil prices surged, US Treasury yields rose, and markets priced in a more hawkish Federal Reserve.
However, sentiment has shifted in recent weeks. Markets are increasingly optimistic that a ceasefire between the US and Iran could lead to a lasting agreement. Diplomatic talks are expected this weekend, while Israel and Lebanon have also agreed to a 10-day ceasefire, boosting hopes of broader de-escalation.
President Trump has indicated that Iran is close to a deal, with both sides agreeing in principle to resume negotiations. This has pushed oil prices lower—down around 3% this week—dragging US Treasury yields lower and the US dollar back towards pre-conflict levels. As a result, dollar-denominated gold has rebounded to a monthly high.
Outlook
Much of the positive news now appears priced in, with gains capped below the 4,800 level as markets await further catalysts.
For gold to extend higher, investors will likely need confirmation of further de-escalation, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Lower oil prices would ease inflation concerns and lift dovish expectations for the Fed. Markets are currently pricing in around a 30% chance of a rate cut this year, compared to expectations of two cuts prior to the conflict.
The key risk to the outlook is a breakdown in negotiations or renewed escalation in US–Iran tensions, which could lift oil prices, push yields higher, and strengthen the dollar—factors that would weigh on gold.
Central bank buying
Aside from the macroeconomic backdrop, central bank buying is also offering support to the precious metal. Global central banks bought 27 tonnes of gold worth more than $4.6 billion in February, at 575% jump from January, as reserve managers diversified away from the US dollar.
According to data from the World Gold Council, the pace still trails that of 2025, when the Reserve Bank picked up 50 tonnes over the same 2-month window. Persistent central bank buying could help support the gold price higher.
Gold technical analysis
Gold has rebounded from the 200-day SMA near 4,100 but remains capped below the 50-day SMA, with prices consolidating around 4,800. The RSI is neutral, suggesting a lack of strong momentum.
Buyers will need to rise above 4900, the 50 SMA to rise towards 5000, the psychological level.
Support can be seen at 4650, the weekly low and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 3120 May swing low and the 5598 high. A break below here opens the door to 4370, the 50% Fib level before exposing the 200 4215.
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