Amazon stock trades at $251.89, up 9.13% year to date, even as AWS growth accelerates to its fastest pace in 18 quarters. Reaching $300 would take a 19.1% gain, and rising earnings estimates and a Wall Street consensus target of $328.17 suggest the move is within reach, according to 24/7 Wall St.
Amazon's operating business is accelerating while its stock has drifted sideways. AWS grew 36.7% in the second quarter, its fastest growth in 18 quarters. The advertising unit brought in $19.8 billion for the quarter, up 26%, and the chips business is already running at a $25 billion annualized rate. Yet shares sit at $251.89, up just 9.13% year to date.
What's Holding the Stock Back
Amazon has fallen 7.49% over the past month and 2.71% over the past week, giving back most of its post-earnings gains. First, Amazon guided to roughly $200 billion in 2026 capital spending for AI infrastructure. As a result, trailing free cash flow has turned negative at $7.6 billion.
Second, shares fell after news that an inquiry into a fatal Miami plane crash involving Amazon operations ramped up. With a beta of 1.443, Amazon amplifies broader market swings, and shares remain well below their 52-week high of $287.20.
Analysts Raise Targets as Estimates Climb
The Street consensus target sits at $328.17, backed by 15 strong buys, 44 buys, and just 2 holds, with zero sells. 24/7 Wall St's own model goes further, targeting $353.36 for a 40.29% upside.
Meanwhile, 2026 earnings-per-share estimates have jumped from $8.66 to $12.57 in the past 90 days. That move came with 48 upward revisions against just one downward revision in the past month. Targets tend to lag estimates, so if forecasts keep rising, price targets could follow.
The Math Behind $300
Reaching $300 from today's price of $251.89 would require a gain of 19.1%. That implies a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 21x against forward earnings per share of $14.42.
The AWS backlog stands at $496 billion, growing at a triple-digit pace. According to Amazon CEO Andy Jassy: "AWS is booming, growing 36.7% year-over-year in Q2, our fastest growth in 18 quarters". Amazon also holds rights to acquire $4 billion of Qualcomm stock as part of an AI infrastructure agreement.
The primary risk, per the source, is that the $200 billion capex build creates a free cash flow air pocket that unsettles investors before the spending pays off. At current levels, Amazon trades at an 18x forward multiple, a discount to its own five-year average.
Three things need to align for $300 to arrive: AWS growth needs to hold above 30%, third-quarter operating income needs to land at the high end of the $22.5 billion to $26.5 billion guide, and the market has to accept that today's capex funds future growth. A sudden reset in AI capital spending across hyperscalers remains the risk that could derail the path higher.
Source: 24/7 Wall St. via Yahoo Finance
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