The U.S.-Iran conflict, running since February with an April ceasefire, has not fundamentally changed the world, according to a report from research firm BCA. Instead, BCA argues the conflict has accelerated six trends already under way, from a more multipolar world order to a weaker dollar and rising nuclear proliferation risk.
The conflict has centred on the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's ability to disrupt Gulf shipping, exposing how vulnerable global trade routes remain. BCA's research team says these disruptions have not altered the world's fundamental direction, but instead sharpened trends the firm was already tracking.
Multipolarity accelerates as U.S. power slips
BCA points to Washington's failure to achieve its war objectives against Iran as evidence of declining relative U.S. power. Every country is now securing its own interests without illusions about the durability of its alliances. The U.S. could survive without Middle East oil in wartime, but only at considerable economic cost, and a U.S. retreat from the region could hand China room to expand its military presence and secure its own oil supply.
Chief Investment Strategist Marko Papic said the U.S. no longer needs to hold the same level of resources in the region if its goal shifts to disrupting China's geoeconomic interests there instead.
Drones and missiles remake the cost of war
Cheap drones, unmanned vessels and anti-ship missiles have made disrupting trade far easier than in past conflicts, creating a new gap between capability and cost. Even advanced militaries now struggle to run offensive operations without facing this asymmetry. Papic says investors now need a private-markets strategy for the sector and should watch smaller drone powers such as Turkey and Ukraine, once minor players in defence technology.
Multipolarity, inflation and the dollar's fading grip
Rising inflation pressure comes first, BCA argues, as multipolarity drives higher defence spending, supply-side risk and just-in-case inventory building, though the firm expects this redundancy could eventually tip into disinflation. According to Papic: "The world may not require as much redundancy as folks think."
The firm also expects the U.S. current account deficit to narrow as the dollar's status as the top reserve currency eroded, weakening the incentive for Saudi Arabia to keep pricing its crude in dollars.
Nuclear risk and green energy resurface
BCA names Japan, South Korea, Germany, Poland, Saudi Arabia, Sweden and Ukraine as U.S. allies now more likely candidates for nuclear breakout, since alliances are not permanent, though it stresses this isn't an investible trend. The firm sees rising support for nuclear energy as nuclear technology proliferates. BCA also thinks dismissing green energy after Trump's 2026 win may have been an overreaction, since disrupted natural gas and oil supply show fossil-fuel alternatives still carry value, with regions in the Americas and potentially Africa positioned to develop their own crude output.
Source: Investing.com
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