Prediction-market traders now assign a 64% probability to another Federal Reserve rate hike at the October meeting, according to Polymarket. The shift follows comments from Fed Governor Michael Barr and a stronger-than-expected batch of economic data, alongside a sharp jump in Treasury yields.
Prediction-market traders are assigning a 64% probability to a rate increase at the October meeting, according to Polymarket, which is tracking the decision. The market gives roughly 35% odds to no change, while the probabilities of either a larger hike or a rate cut remain below 1%.
Polymarket's contract on the decision has generated more than $14 million in trading volume, a sizeable pool of capital behind those expectations. A further increase would take the federal funds target range above its current 3.75%-4% level, following the Fed's 25-basis-point increase in September.
Behind the shift are comments from Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr, who said further tightening may be needed to bring inflation back toward the central bank's 2% target. Fresh economic data also pointed to a resilient U.S. economy, with business activity and employment showing strength alongside persistent price pressures, and investors are digesting fresh inflation readings alongside those hawkish signals.
Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.116%, its highest level since July 2007 and its biggest one-day move in eighteen months, as PMI surveys came in much stronger than expected. A five-year Treasury auction drew poor demand around the same time, and oil prices jumped.
Source: Altcoin News – Cryptonews
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