GBP/USD is testing a rising wedge on the four-hour chart with the breakout direction still unresolved as traders wait on the Federal Reserve's September 15-16 meeting and the Bank of England's decision two days later. A widening hawkish bloc on the BoE's rate committee and climbing energy prices are adding fresh volatility risk to the pound.
The wedge holds inside its profile
GBP/USD fell toward support at 1.3475 during a short-term downtrend that ran from August 21 to September 2. The pair then recovered into a rising wedge, with both boundaries sloping upward and the lower boundary climbing faster than the upper one.
On September 10, GBP/USD attempted to break below the wedge's lower boundary, but the move stayed inside the market profile, with price holding between the upper boundary at 1.3545 and the Point of Control at 1.3515. A false breakout that pushes back above the profile's upper boundary would run into resistance near 1.3570, while a deeper slide through the POC and the lower boundary at 1.3500 would put the 1.3475 support back in focus. RSI + MAs readings of 48, 46 and 47 sit in the middle of the neutral zone, leaving the breakout too early to confirm.
The BoE's rate committee keeps tilting hawkish
The technical stalemate comes as the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee has grown steadily more hawkish. Chief Economist Huw Pill was the lone member backing a hike in April, an 8-1 vote that narrowed to 7-2 in June when Megan Greene joined him. It then widened to a 6-3 split in July as Catherine Mann added her dissent. Each of the past three meetings added one official to the hawkish camp, and the July dissent already cited inflation risk from Middle East energy developments.
September brings no new Monetary Policy Report, so the BoE's minutes rather than fresh forecasts will carry the signal on whether that concern is spreading beyond the dissenting trio. The next full forecast round isn't due until November 5.
Goldman lifts its Gilt yield forecast on energy prices
Energy prices have reinforced that backdrop. Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for the 10-year Gilt yield to 5% at end-2026, up from 4.4%, after energy costs climbed to new highs and narrowed the room for relief at the front end of the curve. Crude Oil WTI rose 3.15% to $103.34 a barrel on Monday, while Brent gained 3.20% to $107.93. Goldman said the threshold for BoE action has likely already been passed and now forecasts a Bank of England rate hike in November.
That leaves GBP/USD caught between a still-undecided technical breakout and a policy backdrop that keeps adding reasons for the BoE to stay firm.
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