Micron's fiscal Q3 2026 revenue jumped 346% year-over-year on surging AI chip demand, and the company guided Q4 revenue to approximately $50 billion. But some analysts now say part of that growth may not land until fiscal 2027, tied to the pace of Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform ramp.
Micron Technology's fiscal Q3 2026 revenue, for the quarter ended in May, hit $41.46 billion, with gross margins around 85% and its entire chip output already committed to customers. The company guided Q4 revenue to approximately $50 billion as AI infrastructure demand keeps surging.
Data center revenue tops $25 billion
Data center revenue alone exceeded $25 billion in Q3, putting that segment on an annualized run rate north of $100 billion. The growth centers on HBM4, Micron's newest high-bandwidth memory built for AI accelerators including Nvidia's upcoming Vera Rubin platform, which has already generated more than $1 billion in revenue and is ramping at twice the speed of its HBM3E predecessor.
CEO Sanjay Mehrotra has backed that momentum with supply commitments. Micron has signed 16 strategic customer agreements carrying take-or-pay provisions, representing roughly $22 billion in commitments and deposits, and its entire HBM supply for 2026 is sold out under multi-year contracts.
Nvidia's ramp creates a timing question
Even so, some analysts now estimate that portions of expected revenue may shift from the current fiscal year into fiscal 2027, depending on how quickly Nvidia moves through product qualification and volume production. That timing risk sits alongside a structural supply squeeze: Mehrotra has said tight HBM supply conditions are expected to persist beyond calendar year 2027, with gradual improvement potentially arriving in 2028.
Take-or-pay deals cushion the risk
Micron is responding with capital expenditures projected to exceed $25 billion, and analysts project approximately 84% revenue growth for fiscal 2027 on the back of that supply imbalance. Meanwhile, the take-or-pay structure of its customer contracts leaves nearly $100 billion in remaining performance obligations on the books, giving Micron a revenue floor even if individual product timelines slip.
Source: Crypto Briefing
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