Nvidia shares have rallied 12.1% since last Thursday's low near $190, pushing into a resistance band between $212.19 and $214.39 that dates back to October 2025. The stock has reclaimed its 200-day moving average and now trades above a cluster of shorter-term averages, with earnings not due until later this month.
Stock tests a ceiling dating to October 2025
Nvidia shares have rallied 12.1% since last Thursday's low near $190.00, extending today's move to $213.00. The climb pushes the stock into a resistance zone rooted in October 2025.
Sellers have consistently leaned against a ceiling between $212.19 and $214.39. Nvidia currently trades near $212.83, inside that band. A break and hold above the ceiling would open the door toward prior swing highs at $221.76 and $232.26, with the all-time high of $236.54 looming beyond.
Moving averages now favor the buyers
The rally has also repaired much of the technical damage from the late-June selloff. Nvidia has reclaimed its 200-day moving average at $193.41 and climbed back above a cluster of shorter-term moving averages, including the 100-day average at $200.93, the 200-hour average at $201.75, and the 100-hour average at $203.61. That cluster now serves as a close-risk area, and the technical bias favors buyers as long as price holds above it.
A move back below the cluster would raise the risk of a retest of the 200-day average, and a sustained break beneath that level would likely encourage more selling. The first break below the 200-day average failed to hold, letting buyers regain control. A second sustained break may not be forgiven as easily.
Earnings still weeks away
Nvidia is not expected to report earnings until later this month. Last year's report came on August 27, while the prior release landed on May 20. Since that May report, the stock remains down roughly 2.9% from its post-release price near $219, despite touching a post-earnings high of $232.26 in early June before sliding to a low of $189.80 on June 29.
The uneven performance partly reflects a broader AI trade: investor attention has increasingly shifted toward names like Micron, AMD, and Intel. Even so, Nvidia remains the benchmark stock for the AI trade, and a break above the current resistance zone would put it back on a path toward challenging its record highs.
Source: InvestingLive
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