Nvidia reports fiscal second-quarter results on Wednesday as its shares drag on the Nasdaq. Traders are watching $195 on the downside and the $232-$235 resistance zone on the upside, while Wall Street models another near-doubling of profit and Citi keeps a $300 price target.
The Nasdaq Composite fell another 0.4% on Monday, even as the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 170 points, or 0.3%, and the S&P 500 slipped just 0.1%. Nvidia reports fiscal second-quarter results on Wednesday.
Key levels ahead of the report
NYSE floor trader Jay Woods is watching two levels to gauge the market reaction, according to CNBC. Nvidia has traded lower five of the last six times it has reported earnings, with old resistance sitting around $215, then $232 and $235, and Woods does not expect enough momentum to break above that zone.
On the downside, Woods flagged $195 as the level that would signal trouble. Nvidia traded around $210 on Monday, so a drop to $195 would mark a 7.1% decline, while the $235.74 closing peak sits roughly 12.3% above Monday's level. According to CNBC: "That's a level to watch on a pullback that could be telling."
Wall Street models another jump in profit
Analysts polled by LSEG expect Nvidia to report $2.10 in earnings per share, a 99.7% increase from a year earlier, on revenue of $92.179 billion, which would be 97.2% above the same quarter last year.
That follows a strong fiscal first quarter, when Nvidia reported non-GAAP earnings of $1.87 a share, beating estimates of $1.76, on revenue of $81.6 billion, up 85% year over year. Data Center revenue reached $75.2 billion, up 92% from a year earlier. Nvidia shares have still gained 15.1% year to date, trailing AMD's 120.1% gain and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's 63.7% rally over the same stretch.
Citi stays bullish, flags supply questions
Citi kept its buy rating and $300 price target on Nvidia and raised its fiscal 2027, 2028, and 2029 earnings-per-share estimates by 1%, 2%, and 2%, respectively, ahead of Wednesday's report. The firm expects $93 billion in revenue for the July quarter, about $1 billion above the Street consensus, helped by a ramp in B300 chip shipments, and projects revenue rising another 13% sequentially to $105 billion in the October quarter, versus the Street's $103.7 billion estimate.
Citi also lowered its estimate for Nvidia's next-generation Vera Rubin platform to 2 million units from 2.2 million, citing memory supply, which could limit how quickly the ramp proceeds. Nvidia remains dependent on a small customer base: three hyperscalers accounted for 54% of its revenue in the first quarter.
Sources: Barrons.com (snippet-based), CNBC, TheStreet
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