A Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey conducted in July found that one-year inflation expectations eased to 3.6%, down from 3.7% in June. The survey also found the perceived probability of finding a job after a layoff rose to 46.2%. A prediction market tracking July's inflation reading, however, moved toward a higher outcome the same day.
The New York Fed's July survey found one-year inflation expectations easing to 3.6%, down from 3.7% in June. Longer-term inflation expectations held steady over the same period, the survey found.
Confidence in the job market also rose in the survey. Respondents put the perceived probability of finding a job after a layoff at 46.2%, a rise that, per the survey findings, points to more positive sentiment among consumers.
A separate prediction market tracking July's inflation reading moved the other way. The sub-market pricing a 44.5% "yes" scenario climbed a point earlier in the day, making it the most active contract tied to the release. That shift suggests market participants may see the incoming data as consistent with a higher inflation outcome within the target band.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is preparing to release July's CPI data next, and traders will watch for any deviation from the survey's easing trend. Moves in energy and food prices, along with any Federal Reserve commentary on policy, could shift the outlook further in either direction.
Source: Crypto Briefing
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