A Russian campaign of strikes on Ukraine's Black Sea ports has nearly halted grain exports just as the wheat harvest peaks, leaving farmers' silos full with nowhere to sell. Ukraine's central bank expects the blockade to cost the country about $2.5 billion in hard currency revenue this year, with the country's farmers' union warning of shortages in import-dependent nations.
Ukrainian farmer Serhiy Rybalko already lost two-thirds of his land when Russia occupied southern Ukraine in 2022. Now a strong harvest sits trapped in his silo because Russia's attacks have almost halted agricultural exports from Ukraine's Black Sea ports. According to Reuters: "There is nowhere to send this grain."
Ukraine ships around 90% of its wheat, corn and sunflower seed exports through the Black Sea, and farming accounts for nearly 60% of the country's export revenue. Ukraine has stepped up its own strikes on Russian vessels, and each side is now trying to cripple the other's economy in the more than four-year war.
Exports collapse as harvest peaks
Grain exports plunged 75% year-on-year in the first two weeks of August, after Russia launched more than 70 attacks on port infrastructure and 62 strikes on vessels in July and early August. Before the blockade, Ukraine shipped 4-5 million metric tons a month of agricultural exports through the waterway.
Ukraine supplies about 6% of the world's wheat and 11% of its corn, deputy head of farmers' union UAC Denys Marchuk said, and warned of possible famine in import-dependent countries across Africa and the Middle East unless supplies arrive on time. Ukraine's overall grain harvest is expected at about 60 million tons this year, almost matching 2025, but storage capacity could fall short by 11 million tons.
Losses mount for farmers and the state
Ukraine's central bank expects the blockade to cost the country about $2.5 billion in hard currency revenue for the rest of the year. UAC estimates farmers face about $3 billion in losses from more expensive logistics. The agricultural sector's wartime losses have already topped $90 billion since 2022, and arable land under cultivation has shrunk by nearly a quarter.
Alternative routes are harder to negotiate than during the war's earlier disruptions, Kyiv School of Economics economist Oleh Nivievskyi said, pointing to strained relations with Poland, a stricter EU trade regime, lower Danube water levels and Russian strikes on railways. Because Russia is also a major food exporter, the escalation carries implications for inflation as record heatwaves and conflict in the Middle East and Ukraine drive up costs. The government has introduced an emergency aid package, expanding state loan programs and easing lending terms, but farmers on the ground say they need more help to secure next year's planting.
Source: Reuters
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