Steve Eisman, the investor who shorted subprime mortgages before the 2008 crash, warned on a September 21 podcast that 70% of hyperscalers' AI revenue comes from just OpenAI and Anthropic. He called OpenAI the single point of failure for the entire AI cycle, a claim that lands six days after OpenAI's CFO defended the company's finances on CNBC.
Steve Eisman says the AI trade rests on two customers. According to his podcast: "70% of AI revenue of the hyperscalers is just from OpenAI and anthropic", which he estimates equals 25% to 35% of the hyperscalers' entire cloud revenue. Eisman offered no source for the figure, but said the whole ecosystem now depends on those two companies, and that OpenAI is the one he thinks is in trouble.
Why the Timing Matters
Eisman's warning follows a defense from inside OpenAI itself. On September 15, CFO Sarah Friar told CNBC the company runs a diversified set of revenue streams with strong margins and a diversified chip supply chain. The next day, CNBC reported that investors had approached OpenAI about a new funding round at a valuation as high as $1.5 trillion, though no active raise was underway. Within a week, the market heard OpenAI described as both a $1.5 trillion diversified platform and a single point of failure.
Follow the Chain: Nvidia and Microsoft
Nvidia sits at the head of the chain, with a market cap of roughly $5.52 trillion. Its fiscal Q2 revenue hit $96.22 billion, up 105.8% year over year, with data center revenue of $89.02 billion. CEO Jensen Huang called compute "supply-constrained" and guided Q3 revenue to $108.0 billion.
Microsoft sits in the middle, with a market cap of $3.68 trillion after Azure crossed $100 billion in annual revenue for the first time. The company's restructured OpenAI deal gave it a roughly 27% stake valued around $135 billion, in exchange for OpenAI contracting $250 billion in incremental Azure services. Yet free cash flow fell to $19.64 billion in the fiscal fourth quarter, down 23% year over year, as capex outran operating cash.
What to Watch Next
Nvidia shares are up 23% year to date, while Microsoft is up just 3.02% in 2026. Investors will watch whether OpenAI's next funding round prices near $1.5 trillion, and whether Microsoft's fiscal Q1 earnings report in late October shows Azure growth holding near its guide without another drop in free cash flow.
Source: 24/7 Wall St.
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