Tesla shares jumped 6.76% on Thursday hours before the company's Austin event introducing the Cybercab to its first public riders. The launch reignites a bull-versus-bear debate over Tesla's robotaxi rollout, where camera-only technology, regulatory approval, and safety data remain contested.
Tesla stock jumps ahead of Cybercab debut
Tesla's stock rallied 6.76% on Thursday, with hours to go before a robotaxi event in Austin, Texas. At the event, Tesla is expected to welcome the first public riders of its Cybercab, a two-seater autonomous vehicle.
Unlike the Model Y SUVs Tesla has already deployed for ride-sharing, the Cybercab lacks a steering wheel or pedals. The launch puts fresh weight on a business bulls and bears already disagree over sharply.
Bears point to missed targets and lidar rivals
Bears argue the rollout has fallen short of CEO Elon Musk's earlier estimates, which included covering half the U.S. population by the end of 2025. They also say Tesla's camera-only approach faces steeper technological hurdles than rivals such as Waymo that use lidar, though it gives Tesla an apparent upfront cost and cost-per-mile advantage over lidar-based rivals.
Still, bears expect lidar and EV costs to fall over time, eroding that edge. They point to a fragmented, state-by-state regulatory path for steering-wheel-less vehicles like the Cybercab, which could slow approvals while lidar-based competitors keep scaling.
Bulls cite software progress and safety record
Bulls note management has spent its last two earnings calls shifting emphasis from fleet size and city expansion toward finishing full self-driving software, version 15. Tesla's head of AI, Ashok Elluswamy, said on the July earnings call that the fleet had logged 380,000 miles with unsupervised robotaxis, with unsupervised mileage growing at double-digit rates every week since the start of 2026.
On safety, an analysis of NHTSA data shows Tesla logged only four incidents directly attributable to unsupervised robotaxis under FSD in 2026 through mid-July, all low-speed impacts under 5 mph. Analysts at Ark Invest expect Tesla's robotaxi cost per mile to run some 30% to 50% lower than Waymo's.
Risk remains tied to timeline
The bottom line, according to Fool analyst Lee Samaha, is that robotaxi expansion is hard, and NHTSA data doesn't capture remote interventions or operational issues such as missed pickups. Samaha takes a bullish stance overall but flags a real risk the large-scale rollout timeline slips into 2027 and stays staggered by region as regulators weigh in one jurisdiction at a time.
Sources: MarketWatch (snippet-based), The Motley Fool
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