President Donald Trump said a trade deal with Canada could come soon, even as both countries escalate tariffs on billions of dollars in goods. The US has imposed 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods and plans import bans on specific industries starting September 29, while Ottawa has hit back with its own levies.
Donald Trump said on September 12 that a trade deal with Canada could happen soon, framing Ottawa as eager to settle while his administration presides over one of the most aggressive tariff escalations between the two countries in modern history. He made the remarks during a meeting with Irish Prime Minister Micheal Martin in Dublin, calling out Canadian tariffs on US farmers and claiming Ottawa wants a deal, according to Crypto Briefing: "very badly."
The tariff timeline
The standoff traces back to a near-agreement in mid-August that collapsed at the last minute. The US responded by slapping 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion worth of Canadian goods, hitting dairy, alcohol, steel, aluminum, and automotive parts.
Canada answered with retaliatory tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% on approximately $20 billion in US exports, which took effect on September 8. Four days later, Trump was in Dublin talking about how close a deal might be. He has also invoked Section 338 measures, authorizing import bans on specific Canadian industries set to kick in on September 29. The tariffs currently in play affect about 5% of bilateral goods trade between the two countries.
A pattern of brinkmanship
Since returning to office in early 2025, Trump has reignited trade grievances centered on Canadian protections for its dairy industry, restrictions on US agricultural imports, and what his administration views as unfair subsidies in the automotive sector. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney maintains that negotiations are ongoing, though both sides have traded blame for the August breakdown. The USMCA trade agreement is now approaching a scheduled review, adding another layer of uncertainty to the dispute.
What this means for markets
Agriculture, automotive, steel, and aluminum sit most directly in the tariff crossfire. Automotive manufacturers face a particular challenge: modern car production sends parts across the US-Canada border multiple times before a vehicle is finished, so a 50% tariff on components changes the economics of where production happens.
The September 29 deadline for US import bans adds a hard clock to the negotiations. If those bans take effect, the dispute moves from tariff territory into something more severe, potentially triggering a new round of Canadian retaliation.
Source: Crypto Briefing
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