Trump's new Section 301 tariff regime, replacing levies the US Supreme Court struck down earlier this year, leaves European exporters marginally better off while hitting Brazil hardest. The overall US effective rate holds near 10.8%, though the reprieve may only be temporary and analysts are again weighing the inflation risk.
European countries have emerged as relative winners of Donald Trump's latest move to rebuild the tariff wall that the US Supreme Court struck down earlier this year. Rates for France, the UK, Germany and Spain have all fallen, according to an analysis of the new duty regime by the independent trade monitoring body Global Trade Alert. By contrast, levies for China, Vietnam and Indonesia rose by between 0.5 and 1 percentage point, as did those for Chile and Colombia.
Brazil takes the hardest hit
Brazil, which Trump hit with separate tariffs earlier this month, is the biggest loser, its effective rate jumping from 11% to 17.7%. Washington imposed the new duties on Thursday using Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, issuing 60 separate directives aimed at each trade partner.
Analysts said the structure was built to make the wall harder to topple, after the Supreme Court ruled that the levies Trump imposed following his "liberation day" event in April 2025 were illegal. The regime replaces the 10% global tariffs imposed as a stopgap after the court's February decision, and the US's overall effective rate now holds steady at 10.8% — below the 15.8% seen at the time of the ruling.
Europe's slim advantage
Global Trade Alert chief executive Johannes Fritz said European exporters benefited from their export mix and from exemptions on goods such as diamonds, cork and pig iron. He added that the increases land mainly on Brazil and China: "Rates rise, particularly for Brazil, but also for China". Among the Europeans, Belgium, Spain and Italy stand to gain most, with rates dropping between 1 and 1.5 percentage points.
Inflation risk back in focus
The new wave carries rates of at least 10% on roughly 99% of imports from about 60 targeted countries, taking effect around July 24, 2026. That has ING and other analysts revisiting their forecasts, yet core goods prices were running at just 1.1% year over year in early 2026, suggesting firms have absorbed much of the cost so far. ING flagged that aggressive pass-through could push inflation up by roughly one percentage point in contained scenarios, with full pass-through adding more than four points in its more extreme models.
A reprieve that may not last
Brussels welcomed rates that did not exceed the 15% ceiling agreed at Trump's Turnberry resort in Scotland last summer. Even so, the bloc has briefed ambassadors that a retaliatory package remains ready for €93bn of US exports, including cars, bourbon and soyabeans.
Sources: Financial Times, Crypto Briefing
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