Viking Therapeutics jumped 34% in premarket trading after new obesity-drug data, while Eli Lilly and Novo slipped. The moves cap a rough month for Lilly, which Citigroup still expects to climb 37% on the strength of its GLP-1 franchise.
Viking Therapeutics stock shot up 34% to 40.42 in premarket trade, putting the stock within reach of a 52-week high. Eli Lilly and Novo, the two companies that dominate the weight-loss drug market, fell slightly on the same morning.
Viking and Roche post new trial data
Viking Therapeutics reported that its GLP1/GIP agonist VK2735 delivered placebo-adjusted weight loss after 33 weeks. Up to 97% of that weight loss held when patients switched from weekly injections to dosing every other week for three months, and up to 90% held when dosing moved to once a month.
Roche also reported results the same day: its GLP1/GIP agonist enicepatide produced a 15.5% weight loss over 48 weeks in overweight or obese patients with type 2 diabetes. Roche shares were not yet active before the open, but they had already risen 2.1% to 55.30 on Monday, regaining their 50-day line.
Eli Lilly, meanwhile, fell 1.4% as shares tried to work back to their 50-day line after a failed breakout last month. Novo declined 1.3% before the open, extending a slide that saw it plunge 8% a day earlier after investors were unimpressed by its post-Wegovy strategy.
Lilly caps a rough month
The premarket move follows a tough stretch for Lilly, which has dropped 7.21% over the past month, sliding from about $1,255.40 even as the broader market pushed higher. Realized U.S. prices fell 9% excluding rebate adjustments, and international pricing compressed after Mounjaro's inclusion in China's National Reimbursement Drug List.
Despite the slide, Citigroup's Geoff Meacham holds a Street-high $1,600 price target on Lilly, implying roughly 37% upside from current levels. His model assumes Lilly holds roughly a 60% share of the global obesity and type 2 diabetes markets, with next-generation assets such as oral orforglipron and triple-agonist retatrutide extending its lead. Of 30 analysts covering the stock, 6 rate it Strong Buy and 18 rate it Buy, against 4 Hold, 1 Sell and 1 Strong Sell.
Novo weighs its options as Viking carries binary risk
According to Investor's Business Daily, Novo Nordisk CEO Mike Doustdar told CNBC on Tuesday his company is considering M&A opportunities to fill in the "gaps" left by its post-Wegovy strategy. Novo shares closed at $39.81, down 7.93% in a single session, against an average analyst target of $46.80.
Viking Therapeutics, by contrast, trades at $30.11 against a consensus target of $92.39, a gap analysts attribute to the binary risk of a clinical-stage biotech still awaiting pivotal trial outcomes.
Sources: Investor's Business Daily, 24/7 Wall St.
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
